Ranking Potential 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) speaks at the 2024 Democratic Convention ahead of a potential presidential run in 2028.

As we draw ever nearer to the start of the 2028 presidential election cycle, rumors and speculation about potential candidates have begun to spread like wildfires, particularly in an open race where neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party has an incumbent nominee for the first time since 2016. Due to the sheer openness of the 2028 presidential race, I expect the number of candidates on both sides to be high, but as I believe that the Republicans currently have a heavy frontrunner in current Vice President JD Vance (check out my previous article on Vance as a candidate for an explanation why), I’m only going to be taking a look at the Democratic side of the picture in this article.

In this article, I’m going to be ranking all major potential Democratic presidential candidates based on how effective I believe they would be on the national level from least to most effective (not their overall likelihood of winning the nomination, so yes, this is my opinion), with the assumption of a relatively even national environment (again, check out my previous article for an explanation) and JD Vance being the Republican nominee (not quite the Generic Republican, but about as close as you can get these days). Now, with that all being said, let’s get into the rankings.

Tier V: Better Off Nominating an Inanimate Object

11. Kamala Harris

If I were a Democrat today, I’d be highly worried about former Vice President Kamala Harris launching a 2028 presidential campaign. Due to her name recognition within the Democratic Party, there is a high chance that she would win the nomination as she did in 2024, and for the Democratic Party as a whole, such a scenario would be a disaster. Fundamentally, Kamala Harris is the worst possible candidate Democrats could nominate for president in 2028, and would get absolutely destroyed by JD Vance on the national level (check out my previous Vance vs Harris prediction article to see just how badly I think Harris would do). It would be an awful decision for the Democratic Party to renominate a candidate who lost the most recent presidential election, particularly given how significantly Harris was defeated by Donald Trump in 2024. Beyond that, however, Harris simply does not have any appeal to traditional Democratic voting blocs such as urban and minority voters, making her a terrible candidate for 2028.

10. Stephen A. Smith

I’ll be completely transparent here. The only reason I even have media personality Stephen A. Smith on this list is because he publicly expressed interest in running for president as a Democrat in 2028. Frankly, I see this whole scheme as yet another act of shameless attention seeking on the part of Smith (I’m sure you can gauge my opinions on the basketball takes of Stephen A. from this description), but if he does somehow end up actually running for president, he’d be a horrible candidate. Proponents of his candidacy (if there even are any) may argue that Smith’s status as a complete outsider from politics may help him in the same way it did Donald Trump in 2016, but where Trump was seen as a successful businessman, Stephen A. is seen as what he currently is: a sports reporter. With all due respect to sports reporters out there (special shout out to Peter Drury of the English Premier League), the transition from sports reporter to leader of a country would hardly be a smooth one, and I believe voters would clearly see that.

9. Tim Walz

Kamala Harris’ 2024 Vice Presidential nominee would be a terrible presidential candidate in 2028 for essentially the same reasons as the Minnesota Governor’s former presidential counterpart. Much like Harris, Walz was a part of the most recent Democratic presidential ticket that lost horribly on the national level to Donald Trump in 2024 (although due to not being on the top of the ticket as the party nominee, I do not think that this would hurt a potential Walz candidacy quite as much as it would Harris, which is why I have Walz ranked slightly higher). Additionally, despite having significant name recognition both within the Democratic Party and on the national level, I personally do not see Walz as the strong leader I believe the Democrats currently need. As seen throughout the 2024 election cycle, Walz tends to prefer taking a political backseat at the highest level, and lacks the charisma of previous Democratic presidential nominees such as Barack Obama. He was thus a fine vice presidential pick in 2024, but would be a weak presidential candidate in 2028.

Tier IV: Would Lose Narrowly to Vance

8. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

I was tempted to put AOC in tier five, but due to her name recognition (rivaled by only a select few within the Democratic Party) and growing national calls for an overhaul of the American governmental system (lining up more closely with the New York City-based Congresswoman’s political positions), I ultimately settled for this tier. As far as Democratic potential 2028 presidential candidates go, Ocasio-Cortez is about as polarizing as it gets, with her political and economic platforms bordering on outright socialism. However, despite this, I do not have her in the lowest possible tier for two main reasons: her charisma and populist appeal, which would draw excellent turnout from the Democratic base, and the political success of Donald Trump, a similarly extreme candidate (just on the opposite side of the political aisle). AOC could be a sneaky bet to win the Democratic nomination if she runs in 2028, but regardless, I do not see her beating JD Vance in a direct electoral matchup on the national stage.

7. Pete Buttigieg

This ranking for former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is not reflective of his quality as a candidate. In my eyes, he checks all the boxes for being an above average at worst Democratic candidate, and had I the sole power to choose our next president, he would appear much higher on this list. As a former presidential cabinet appointee and mayor of South Bend, Indiana, he has the political experience to be an effective leader on Capitol Hill, and as a candidate, his charisma rates as above average compared to other Democrats. However, I believe the current consensus view of Buttigieg to be far more negative than my own. There are (unfortunately) a significant number of American voters who would look upon Buttigieg unfavorably as a candidate due to his LGBTQ identity, including many moderate and independent voters who would be crucial to any nationwide victory scenarios for Buttigieg over JD Vance. While I do not believe that 2028 is his year, I hope as a personal fan of his that Buttigieg is eventually able to mount a successful presidential or vice presidential campaign, which fortunately for him, remains highly possible due to his youthful age of 43 (hardly a spring chicken by human standards, but very young for a high-profile American politician).

6. Gavin Newsom

I was torn whether to put California Governor Gavin Newsom in this tier or the one above, but due to home state “disadvantage” (I know this isn’t a political term, but I’ll get to it in a bit) and some questionable political decisions as of late, I believe he would lose to JD Vance in a presidential election. As a Democratic candidate in a vacuum, I would say that Newsom grades out as average to slightly above average: he is an excellent debater, relatively charismatic, and has strong name recognition within the Democratic Party. While I do think it would be Newsom’s best political decision to run for president in 2028, I highly doubt that he would win the Democratic nomination, and even if he does, he would be an objectively poor candidate on the national level. Simply being from California these days limits a candidate’s range of appeal to moderate and independent voters. We’ve seen this with Kamala Harris in 2024, whose performance in the suburban areas that powered Democrat Joe Biden to the presidency in 2020 was lackluster, to say the least. Additionally, Newsom has his fair share of baggage compared to his competitors, from a mere 52 percent approval rating in one of the most Democratic states in the country to scandals such as the French Laundry incident in 2020, making him an objectively weak candidate, all things considered.

Tier III: 50/50

To my surprise just as much as yours (or maybe not, if you’re a true American politics aficionado), there is not a single major Democratic potential candidate that I believe would precipitate a tossup outcome in a direct potential matchup against JD Vance in the current national environment. The 2028 Democratic primaries will therefore be very important, as all the candidates that have already appeared on this list will likely lose to Vance on the national level, while all the candidates below will likely defeat him. Let’s take a look at the candidates who I think would be favored against JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup.

Tier II: Would Narrowly Beat Vance

5. Andy Beshear

This may be an underestimation of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s overall quality as a candidate, as I see him as one of the strongest realistic candidates the Democrats have to offer in 2028. He is certainly closer to the tier above the one he is currently in than the tier below, but as I explained in a previous article, he has a few limitations as a candidate that just keep him out of the elite candidates tier. While he has shown the ability to win and maintain popularity in hostile environments, currently holding a 68 percent approval rating in a state that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump won by 30.5 points in 2024, his ability to drive turnout amongst the Democratic base, particularly in cities, remains a question mark for me. Nevertheless, his unique appeal to traditionally Republican voting blocs such as rural voters and Southern suburban voters, which I believe is the strongest of any candidate the Democrats could nominate in 2028, would result in a relatively comfortable electoral victory for Beshear over JD Vance in a head-to-head matchup.

Tier I: The Best of the Best

4. Josh Shapiro

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is by far the best candidate who I think is currently highly likely to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, and were a realistic hypothetical primary to play out today, he’d be my pick. As I covered in my previous article regarding Shapiro’s potential candidacy, I believe his range of appeal to be almost without flaw. His political experience and name recognition would give him an edge with moderate and independent voters, whom he also has the ability to appeal to with his political policies, and his charisma would also make him a strong candidate for the Democratic base. Shapiro offers an excellent blend of turnout and moderate appeal across the country, and while there are better suburban Democratic potential candidates out there (some of whom I’ll get to later), Shapiro would also boast an extremely valuable home state advantage, with Pennsylvania being arguably the most pivotal swing state in this era of presidential elections. All things considered, I believe Shapiro would comfortably defeat JD Vance in a direct electoral matchup if he runs for the 2028 nomination (which based on current trends, I would bet that he does so).

3. Roy Cooper

I’ve previously covered how strong of a candidate I believe former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper would be on the presidential level, but in all honesty, I do not believe that running for president in 2028 would be Cooper’s best political choice. If I were Cooper, I would run for North Carolina’s Senate seat in 2026 (which he has publicly expressed interest in doing). If he does so, he could easily flip the pivotal seat in his state (as I predicted in my most recent 2026 senate election prediction article) and maintain the seat for many years. However, if he does choose to run for president in 2028, he would, as I covered in a recent article (am I doing this too much?), be an excellent candidate. Cooper offers essentially everything Josh Shapiro does with better suburban appeal, greater proven ability to win elections in hostile political environments, and a slightly less important home state advantage (North Carolina is still one of the country’s most competitive states on the national level), making him a tiny bit better of a candidate than Shapiro overall. I previously stated that Cooper was the best candidate Democrats could nominate for president in 2028, and while I am no longer that high on him as a candidate, I still believe that he would comfortably win a national election against JD Vance.

2. Jon Ossoff

Much like Cooper, if I were Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, I would prioritize running for re-election in the 2026 Senate Election in my state over running for president in 2028. However, if Ossoff does decide to run (which, for the record, I see as highly unlikely), he would be a phenomenal candidate (which I, for once, have not yet covered in a separate article). Ossoff is essentially everything Roy Cooper is as a candidate with a marginally more influential home state advantage (Georgia is even more competitive on the national level than North Carolina) and nearly three decades of relative youth, generally considered a positive in American politics. Ossoff, as the youngest current senator, would represent a fresh voice for young voters (who tend to exhibit the lowest levels of turnout amongst the age groups, but are also the most Democratic) while maintaining a wide range of appeal to both moderate and progressive voters through his charisma and political positions. While I doubt he would win the nomination if he runs in 2028 (and I therefore hope he does not), he may be just what the Democratic Party needs to spearhead its next political era.

1. Josh Stein

While the timing of the 2028 presidential election does play a minor factor here, I believe the best possible candidate Democrats could put forth at the moment is North Carolina Governor Josh Stein. While all the aforementioned candidates in my best of the best tier would be phenomenal presidential candidates in 2028, they all have theoretical weaknesses that certain voters could point out: Shapiro could be criticized due to his lack of suburban appeal relative to some other Democratic candidates, Cooper for being too old, and Ossoff being too young. As far as I’m concerned, however, Stein has essentially zero weaknesses as a presidential candidate in 2028. His appeal range is elite across the board, he holds an incredible 35 point net approval rating in a state that voted for Republican Donald Trump by 3.2 percent in 2024, he boasts a highly influential home state advantage much like the other candidates in this tier, and he has virtually zero political baggage that could hold back a potential presidential campaign. Were I in control of the Democratic nomination process today looking for a candidate to move my party forward in 2028, I would choose Josh Stein.

Ultimately, many of the candidates placed higher upon this list have some of the lowest chances of running for the Democratic nomination in 2028 or winning the primary election if they decide to do so (and vice versa for some of the candidates placed lower on this list). While this is my personal ranking of candidates based on anticipated effectiveness on the national level, I am obviously not in charge of the Democratic primaries, so please, dear reader, take these projections with a grain of salt. For those of you who would be interested in seeing a ranking of potential 2028 Democratic candidates based on their likelihood of winning the nomination, I will be releasing an article on the subject sometime this summer. Until then, as always, all we can do is wait and see how things change in the ever fluid sphere of American politics.

Note to readers: I understand this is a far longer article than you are used to, but I really wanted to dive into depth on these candidates ahead of the 2028 election cycle. Rest assured, my prediction articles (which are due for their next edition shortly) will be much less of a read than this one.