2028 Election Prediction: Josh Shapiro vs JD Vance

As the 2028 presidential election cycle nears (not really, but we are getting closer by the day), I feel that it’s time I begin to get into the business of imagining presidential matchups from a group of potential candidates and predicting their outcomes.

This edition pits Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro against Vice President JD Vance, candidates that I believe are currently most likely to run for and ultimately win their respective parties’ presidential nominations. As candidates, I see Vance as a solid, but not excellent choice, boosted due to his projected pragmatism and a public image far greater than either of the candidates in the previous three presidential election cycles, but constrained by a lack of overall appeal and charisma held by presidential candidates such as Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Shapiro, on the other hand, would be a strong Democratic candidate, due to his regional advantage in the Midwest, proven ability to win elections in difficult environments, and crossover appeal to both moderates and Republicans that would likely extend nationally. If he wins the Democratic nomination in 2028, expect the party to be in a strong position.

Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at how I think an election between Josh Shapiro and JD Vance would play out if it was held today.

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

As can be seen in the map above, assuming that the 2028 election was held in context with the current political landscape, I have Josh Shapiro narrowly defeating JD Vance, flipping the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona from 2024. While I believe the current national environment to be completely neutral, or even slightly favorable to Republicans, I believe Shapiro to be a significantly better candidate than Vance, giving him the advantage in a direct matchup. Let’s take a look at why I think that is.

Where Shapiro Does Well

Shapiro’s best performances come in his home region of the Midwest, specifically the “rust belt” swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In particular, Shapiro’s nomination would all but lock up his home state of Pennsylvania for Democrats, in which he enjoys an 18-point net approval rating, and the appeal to progressive voters that makes him such a strong candidate for his home state would extend to Wisconsin and Michigan, allowing to win them both as well.

While Shapiro is not the greatest candidate for Southern swing states, he’s also not a bad one. In addition to his high gubernatorial approval rating, Shapiro is also approved of by 22% of Pennsylvanian Republicans (significantly higher numbers amongst members of the opposing party than the national average), indicative of crossover appeal that would likely extend to the South. Given current political trends, I believe this crossover appeal would be just enough for Shapiro to win Georgia over Vance.

Where Vance Does Well

This matchup against Shapiro, one of the stronger candidates of those the Democrats could nominate in 2028, makes Vance appear less the candidate than he actually is. While I do believe that he would lose to Shapiro if the 2028 election were held today, Vance offers plenty of his own advantages as a candidate. Much like Donald Trump, Vance’s presidential running mate in 2024, Vance has a unique rural appeal, and would generate levels of rural turnout that perhaps no other Republican except for Trump could, particularly helpful in swing states such as Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina. Additionally, due to his projection of a pragmatic approach to politics and less controversial and confrontational political persona compared to Trump, Vance would likely do better than Trump with moderate and suburban voters, allowing him to win Arizona and North Carolina.

However, the flip side of Vance’s more moderate, grounded personality would be his lack of appeal relative to Trump with working class and progressive voters, making him an objectively weak candidate for the rust belt. Shapiro, a particularly strong candidate for the region, would comfortably beat him in the Midwest’s key swing states, ultimately handing him the election. While Vance is not a bad candidate for the presidency, and would beat a number of potential Democratic challengers in the current political landscape, I believe that Shapiro currently has the national advantage against him. If the 2028 election were held today between Josh Shapiro and JD Vance, I believe that Shapiro would win.