Hypothetical 2028 Election Prediction: Barack Obama vs Donald Trump

There have recently been a number of reports that current second-term Republican President Donald Trump, despite being term-limited and thus prevented by law from running for a third term, has been gearing up for a presidential run in 2028. While I think it is highly unlikely that Trump will be permitted to run again (the 22nd amendment to the Constitution explicitly prohibits it), whether he truly wants to or not, I’ve been thinking recently about the events that would take place if he were permitted to run, which eventually brought me to this hypothetical.

Theoretically, if Trump were allowed to run for a third term, it would also allow for other previous two-term presidents to run again, allowing for a possible matchup with Democratic Former President Barack Obama. As an election enthusiast, a direct electoral matchup between, in my mind, the strongest Democratic and Republican candidates of the 21st century, respectively, is about as exciting as I could possibly imagine, and I’ve long thought about what would happen if this matchup somehow played out. Therefore, while I think the chance of this electoral matchup taking place in 2028 is about as high as mine of ceasing to create election predictions for the same cycle (count this as a promise, my noble readers), we’re going to take a look at how I think a Barack Obama vs Donald Trump election would play out in 2028, based on the political trends of today.

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

As can be seen in the map above, I have Barack Obama narrowly winning over Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, headlined by a particularly strong performance in the Midwest. This election prediction was probably the hardest I’ve ever predicted, and I’ll start by saying that I’m not the most confident in my classifications. Both Trump and Obama are very strong candidates, but what makes this matchup particularly difficult to predict is the fact that unlike most strong Democratic candidates of today, their strengths and weaknesses, both geographically and in terms of appeal, almost directly overlap. Both Obama and Trump are strong candidates for Midwestern “rust belt” swing states; both are strong candidates for minority voters; both are also weak candidates for Southern “sun belt” swing states and suburban voters; both would draw exceptional turnout. I could go on and on, but fundamentally, the strengths of both Obama and Trump cancel each other out, and a direct matchup between them would be determined by two things: the national environment, and whose specific strengths are stronger. As I have previously indicated, I believe the 2028 national environment to be essentially even at the moment, so my belief in Obama’s victory is driven by the fact that I think his strengths fundamentally outnumber Trump’s. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Where Obama Does Well

Barack Obama was, for lack of a better description, a generational political candidate. Within the Democratic Party, there has not been a candidate with the sheer range of appeal that Obama enjoyed for decades (including even the strongest of potential Democratic candidates today). Obama’s appeal to progressives, populists, rural and working class voters, minorities, youth voters, political outsiders, and many other groups makes him easily the strongest candidate the Democrats could put forth for the Midwestern swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which I believe he would relatively comfortably win, while also making states such as Iowa and Ohio more competitive. I also believe that he would win Georgia, due to the state’s heavy African-American population. In 2012, Obama won an unprecedented 93% of the African-American vote, with levels of turnout that have not been matched since, and I see little reason that this would change in a 2028 matchup with Donald Trump, to the point where North Carolina would also be highly competitive, though I believe Obama would narrowly lose it. Obama’s only real weakness comes with moderate, suburban voters, who heavily populate swing states in the South, and though Trump is also not the strongest suburban candidate, I believe this would put states such as Arizona out of his reach.

Where Trump Does Well

As mentioned earlier, Donald Trump is not the strongest candidate for Southern, suburb-heavy swing states, but luckily for him, neither is Obama. His weaknesses as a candidate in traditionally Republican states such as Arizona, Texas, and North Carolina would therefore not plague him as much as against many of the high-profile Democratic candidates of today, to the point where he would comfortably win the former two and narrowly hold onto the latter. While Trump would, in my eyes, lose significantly in the rust belt swing states to Obama, he would still perform well in each of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, keeping them competitive where no other Republican candidate could against Obama, even in today’s political landscape. While my predicted map makes it seem that Trump would be comfortably defeated in this electoral matchup, I believe that he would absolutely have a shot at defeating Obama on the national level, and if the national environment tips in the favor of Republicans between now and 2028, Trump would be favored in this direct matchup (though, I will once again reiterate that I strongly believe that this matchup will not happen).

Overall, this electoral matchup bridges two distinct political eras, and though I erred on the side of classifying states according to their current political leanings, I do believe that the impact of Obama as a candidate would to some degree reverse the trends of working class Midwestern voters shifting towards Republicans that make Trump such a strong candidate for rust belt states (and vice versa, with trends of suburban voters in Southern swing states moving towards Democrats also likely to occur to a lesser degree). That being said, while I see both Barack Obama and Donald Trump as exceptional candidates in their own rights, I do think Obama is slightly stronger, both in terms of marketability and overall appeal. For Trump to beat him in a 2028 matchup, it would take a national environment that clearly favors Republicans, which at the moment, in my eyes, does not exist.