An Early Look at Potential 2028 Presidential Candidates

Vice President JD Vance (R) speaks during key negotiations between the United States and Ukraine in February of 2025.

It has now been five months since the consequential 2024 presidential election, in which Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, becoming the first president in over a century to serve non-consecutive terms (though in light of what we have seen since the election, it certainly feels as though it has been a lot longer). While the next presidential election cycle in 2028 is still well over a year away, rumors and backstage preparations ahead of it have already begun, and a number of potential candidates, particularly on the Democratic side, have begun to emerge. Politicians weighing potential runs in 2028 have begun forming coalitions of donors, voters, and political supporters, so with all that fun stuff going on behind the scenes, let’s take a look at who the eventual nominees on both sides (since Trump is term-limited, meaning that both the Democrats and Republicans will have genuine primary races in 2028) may be, and how strong (or weak) they would be representing their parties on the national level.

JD Vance

While both Democrats and Republicans will not have an incumbent running in their respective primary cycles, I believe that Republicans have a clear frontrunner in current Vice President JD Vance whose hold on the party will likely only increase as the work of the current presidential administration continues. Vance fundamentally has everything desired in a prospective presidential nominee: name recognition, political pedigree from his position as Vice President, a lack of baggage relative to other high-profile Republicans (with all due respect to his couch-related stories), and most importantly, the all but certain endorsement of Donald Trump. My logic here is pretty simple: the Republican Party is firmly the party of Donald Trump, and whoever Trump picks to be his successor will be the Republican nominee in 2028. As Vance has done nothing to suggest that he will lose Trump’s favor before the upcoming cycle, he remains, in my mind, the extreme favorite to win the nomination. While other names such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin could get involved, without Trump’s support, their candidacies will not get anywhere.

The Democratic Governors

Interestingly, all five of the legitimate Democratic frontrunners who I believe may actually be intent on running for president in 2028 are current governors of various states. However, while they share the same rank, their effectiveness as candidates varies drastically. Let’s run through them individually, and at the end, I’ll provide my opinion on who I believe the best candidate would be. 

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, the party’s vice presidential nominee in 2024, has already publicly expressed interest in running for president in 2028. Because Walz was so heavily involved in the previous election cycle, we already have a general idea of who he is on the national stage: a polite politician who positions himself as a moderate with few strong opinions. Charisma and national appeal were concerns with Walz even before he was chosen as the vice presidential nominee in 2024, and as seen in the results of the election (in which Walz and Kamala Harris, his running mate, lost both the popular vote and electoral college by substantial margins to Donald Trump and JD Vance), those concerns ended up negatively affecting the Democratic Party as a whole. It’s generally not a great idea to run a candidate on the presidential level who was part of the losing ticket of the very election that preceded it, so I believe that of all the prospective 2028 candidates, Walz is the weakest that the Democrats could put forward. As Democratic Party elites are more than likely aware of this fact, I highly doubt he wins the nomination.

Before Walz was officially chosen as Kamala Harris’ vice presidential nominee, a name that was commonly floated for the position was Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who I believe would be a very strong candidate for 2028. Pennsylvania, due to its hyper-competitive nature (it has been decided by under 2 percentage points in every election cycle since 2012) and immense 19 electoral votes, is arguably the most important individual state in the entire country, and there is no better Democratic candidate to win the state than its own governor. Shapiro not only enjoys an 18-point net approval rating in his home state, but is also approved of by 22% of Pennsylvanian Republicans (significantly higher numbers amongst members of the opposing party than the national average), indicative of crossover appeal that would likely extend nationally. Shapiro also has appeal amongst both moderates and progressives within the Democratic Party due to his charisma, and therefore has a strong case to be the best candidate of all those the Democrats can offer.

Josh Shapiro and former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper are very similar candidates. Both come from highly competitive swing states pivotal to the overall results of the election, with North Carolina tending to vote slightly more Republican than Pennsylvania. Both have shown the ability to win elections in national environments unfavorable to them, and both are lauded within the Democratic Party for their charisma and crossover appeal. The only real difference between them is their regional appeal. Due to the geographic locations of their respective home states, Shapiro’s appeal will be strongest in the Northern “rust belt” swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Cooper’s appeal will be strongest in the Southern “sun belt” swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Both Shapiro and Cooper, however, would be very strong candidates for both regions.

Whereas Shapiro and Cooper have additional value as candidates due to home state advantage, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear could not hope to win his home state on the presidential level. However, much like his aforementioned fellow governors, Beshear is a charismatic moderate with a wide range of appeal across the political aisle. Beshear currently stands as the third most popular in the country with a 65% approval rating despite being a Democrat in a solidly Republican state. However, due to the highly conservative nature of his home state, Beshear’s platform may actually be too moderate for the progressive wings of the Democratic Party. While I still believe him to be a strong candidate overall, the levels of turnout Beshear would be able to muster amongst the Democratic base, crucial to winning swing states, may be lower than a more mainstream candidate such as Cooper or Shapiro.

I’ve presented a series of strong Democratic candidates here, which may lull my wonderful readers (I know, I know, I’m threatening your sense of false humility) into concluding that I believe Democrats are currently clearly favored to win the 2028 election. However, as showcased later in this article, this is not the case, and can be visualized through the potential candidacy of California Governor Gavin Newsom. Now, Newsom does have more things going for him than say, a Tim Walz: he’s one of the best debaters in the Democratic Party, has levels of charisma that rival Cooper, Beshear, and Shapiro, and has been a key figure in the Democratic Party for a number of years now. However, unlike many of the aforementioned governors, Newsom, largely due to hailing from California, lacks the moderate appeal that would allow him to compete in key swing states such as Georgia and Arizona. Many Americans regard Californians (including yours truly) as radically liberal solely due to their geographic heritage, so while candidates such as Roy Cooper and Josh Shapiro are boosted by their home states, Newsom’s candidacy is significantly weakened by his. This makes him a relatively weak candidate overall, but definitely not the weakest out there.

Ultimately, were I to choose a Democratic presidential candidate for 2028 from the current frontrunners, the choice would ultimately come down to Josh Shapiro, or Roy Cooper. Both offer significant geographical advantages in addition to charisma, proven ability to win elections, and crossover appeal, and while I believe that both governors would beat JD Vance in a head-to-head election given the current state of American politics, Cooper’s regional appeal just wins out for me. Ultimately, from a mathematical standpoint, the rust belt swing states are slightly more naturally Democratic than the sun belt swing states, so I’d therefore be more confident in Cooper winning the rust belt than I would in Shapiro winning the sun belt. Either way, both are excellent candidates, and were I a Democratic strategist, I’d be highly pleased with either winning my party’s nomination.

The Generic 2028 Electoral Map (At the Time of Writing)

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

With zero candidate effect on either side, I currently see the 2028 presidential election as essentially even between Republicans and Democrats, with Republicans currently having a slight electoral advantage, and ultimately dependent on the same group of competitive states as 2024 (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin). As stated earlier, I strongly expect Vice President JD Vance to be the Republican nominee in 2028, so the ratings above are set with that in mind, and while I think there are plenty of Democrats, such as governors Cooper, Shapiro, and Beshear, who would beat Vance in the current political environment, I think the average Democrat would narrowly lose to him. As we are still far out from the 2028 election cycle, it’s tough to make definitive predictions about the nature of the race, so my predictions are admittedly a little conservative at this point, but as things currently stand, I believe that much like each American election cycle since 2016, the ultimate outcome of the 2028 presidential election will be heavily candidate-dependent. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see who each party’s nominee will be.