Two down, one to go. As we get closer and closer to the first primary elections, the race for the 2024 Republican nomination only continues to heat up. This week, on September 27, 2023, seven major Republican candidates squared off at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California in an attempt to convince prospective primary voters that they are the best candidate for the presidency. The list of candidates was the same as the previous debate with one exception (former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who failed to qualify), including famous political names such as former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Also like the previous debate, the race’s frontrunner - who currently has a commanding 42 percent lead over any other candidate - former President Donald Trump, was absent in the proceedings, which begs the question of whether this debate was just a competition for second place.
The debate itself, however, actually revealed a few major truths about the candidates and their political careers (beyond the unceasing bickering between the moderators and candidates, of course). Around a month ago, I wrote my second iteration of ranking every major Republican presidential candidate by their likelihood of winning the nomination. Let’s take a look at how I think many of these candidates performed at the debate, along with what their performances spell for the future of their campaigns. And this time, unlike the previous versions, there have actually been some significant changes.
Doug Burgum
Of the candidates on stage, I have consistently had North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum ranked last in terms of likelihood of winning the Republican nomination. His performance in the second debate was very similar to that of the first debate. He had by far the lowest speaking time of any candidate with under 8 minutes, was rarely involved in major discussions between candidates, and did little to improve upon the already poor standing of his campaign. At this point, I think it’s safe to say that Burgum has virtually zero chance of winning the nomination, and will likely drop out after the Iowa caucuses. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t even make it that far.
Chris Christie
Just like the previous debate, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s debate performance went almost exactly how I expected it to. He was relatively vocal in the debate, got his anti-Trump points quite clearly across, and shrouded himself in his fair share of controversy. He was booed by the crowd a couple of times but despite this, I actually thought some of the points he got across, including his positions on the Russia-Ukraine War, were quite sensible. However, among the Republican voting base, such messages only resonate with those who were already sympathetic to Christie’s campaign. Therefore, I don’t think the outlook of his campaign changed all that much after the second debate. He is still highly unpopular among the Trump base and still has an extremely narrow pathway to the nomination.
Mike Pence
If I were to choose a candidate whose debate performance I was most surprised by, it would be former Vice President Mike Pence. In the first debate, he was the most vocal candidate, portraying himself as a hardcore Christian conservative who had not forsaken the ways of his former running mate, Donald Trump. However, in the second debate, he clearly attempted to take a different approach, speaking less and attacking Trump more directly. I think it’s safe to say that didn’t work out. Pence’s debate performance can be described as fundamentally subpar, and likely hurt his campaign more than it helped. I’ve been high on Pence as a candidate in the past, but at this point, even I have to admit that his days of being a serious contender for the nomination are over.
Tim Scott
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has not had a good September. Not only has his campaign failed to eclipse 3 percent national support, but his performance in the second debate left a lot to be desired. His exchanges with fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley (who I’ll get to later) turned out in Haley’s favor at his expense, and his constant attempts to talk over fellow candidates did not come off as very presidential. If I were to make a sleeper prediction on a candidate to drop out earlier than expected, it would be Scott, as at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops out after the primary in his home state of South Carolina.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Expectations were sky-high for businessman Vivek Ramaswamy after a very strong month of September for his campaign. However, his performance in the second debate was nothing short of a disaster. From being embarrassed by the moderators to being outed for his lack of political experience, the image of himself that Ramaswamy had built as a capable leader from a new generation came crashing down upon him. He certainly talked a lot, with 12 minutes of speaking time, but most of that was simply defending against personal attacks (albeit largely inadequately). While Ramaswamy was largely effective in portraying and defending himself in the first debate, he was largely unable to in the second debate. Ramaswamy’s polling numbers have collapsed in the past few days, and although I’ve previously lauded him to be Donald Trump’s Vice President if he wins the nomination, I certainly have my doubts about that now.
Nikki Haley
Contrary to her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign has had an excellent month of September. Her polling numbers have nearly doubled in the past few weeks, and she was able to follow up an excellent performance in the first debate with a commendable performance in the second debate. She was not excessively vocal, but got her main points across. She was not overly aggressive, but when directly challenged by Tim Scott, she held her ground and then some. Haley has arguably cemented herself as the top choice of Republican mothers, and although this is far from enough to win her the nomination, I think it’s reasonable to declare her a serious contender at this point.
Ron DeSantis
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was, to me, the clear winner of the debate. He showcased all his well-known strengths, such as hardline policies and his track record in Florida, but unlike the first debate, hid his weaknesses, such as a lack of relatability, relatively well. He came off as a strong leader, but more impressively, a strong debater, which many - including myself - were not expecting. DeSantis showed that he is genuinely capable of mounting a serious challenge to Donald Trump (who he has recently been distancing himself from), and although I still don’t think he will, he definitely has the best shot of anyone on this list. His polling numbers have massively ticked up in the past few days, and although he still has a massive gap to close, this debate was certainly a start.
However, while I think Ron DeSantis certainly has a chance of making this race interesting, this debate was more of a competition for second place than the nomination. Ultimately, the clear frontrunner in this race was the elephant not in the room: former President Donald Trump. While some of this week’s debate performances may cause a few Trump supporters to have second thoughts about who they should vote for, they are nowhere near enough to truly move the needle. Just as I argued last month, and the month before that, unless Trump’s current criminal charges land him in prison or prevent him from running for president, it’s very difficult to see him losing the Republican nomination, and that hasn’t changed after the second primary debate.
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