A Quick Look at the 2025 Gubernatorial Elections
- sohansahay200
- Aug 7
- 3 min read
As far as predictions and election coverage go, my focus has been almost entirely on 2026 and 2028, the closest upcoming midterm and general election cycles respectively. In all this coverage of the main election cycles, lesser known off-year election cycles have sort of gone under the radar for me, including the routine gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey that will take place later this year. As 2025 is such a small election cycle, I wanted to take a bit of a deep dive into each of these two races, both of which should be relatively competitive, without giving as much credence to 2026 or 2028. Let’s therefore take a close look at the upcoming elections in New Jersey and Virginia, along with my ultimate predictions for each.
Virginia
Of the two races in 2025, Virginia is probably the most interesting, as while the state has a term-limited (and therefore unable to run for re-election) Republican Governor in Glenn Youngkin, it has voted Democratic on the presidential level in every election since 2004, and has historically elected Democratic governors ever since then. That being said, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris only won the state by 5.8% in 2024, meaning that its gubernatorial race will likely be decided by state-specific factors, of which there are plenty. For one, this race pits federal politics against statewide politics, with Democratic House Representative Abigail Spanberger running against current Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears. It also serves as a test of which matters more between the high approval rating of Governor Youngkin (10% positive net approval) and the very low approval rating of his fellow Republican Donald Trump (15% in the negative in Virginia, minus 20% nationwide). As Sears is directly connected to Youngkin’s administration, I’d be more inclined towards the former, but given that the magnitude of the latter is more severe, I’d expect each trend to balance out. All in all, given the state’s partisan lean, a national environment favorable to Democrats, and a history of off-year elections favoring the non-incumbent party, I’d characterize the 2025 gubernatorial race in Virginia as lean Democratic.
New Jersey
New Jersey, much like Virginia, New Jersey also has the chance to be a highly interesting gubernatorial race in 2025. For starters, the two races share many similarities: they will both have no incumbent due to the current governor (in New Jersey’s case, Democrat Phil Murphy) being term-limited, they were both moderately competitive states in the most recent presidential election cycle, with Democrat Kamala Harris winning New Jersey by 5.9% in 2024, and they both carry significant influence from state-specific factors in regard to their ultimate outcomes. However, I can say with confidence that I believe if Virginia goes blue in 2025 (which I expect it to), New Jersey will also do so. There are two primary reasons for this, the first being that although New Jersey was competitive in 2024, it has historically been a solidly Democratic state on the national level, having voted for the Democratic candidate by over 14% in every presidential election from 2008 to 2020. The second, arguably more significant, is that the Democrats have nominated a very strong candidate for this race in House Representative and former naval officer Mikie Sherill, while the Republicans’ hopes bank on former state assemblyman Jack Ciatarelli, who lost the state’s gubernatorial race in 2021. All things considered, New Jersey's status as a blue state combined with statewide and national trends both favoring the Democratic Party lead me to classify its 2025 gubernatorial race as likely Democratic.
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