Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Is Down: What Does This Mean for the 2026 Election Cycle?

President Donald Trump (R) officially signs the controversial “Big Beautiful Bill” into law, surrounded by a host of Republican colleagues.

In almost all of my recent prediction articles (which have admittedly been excessive in quantity, a big part of why I’m writing this article), I have mentioned the steadily declining approval ratings of current US President Donald Trump as the primary reason that the Republican Party looks likely to suffer losses in both the Senate and particularly the House of Representatives in the upcoming 2026 election cycle. While the popularity of a Republican President having a significant effect on the fortunes of the Republican Party in elections that take place during his term seems like an obvious fact, I’ve never actually taken the time to explain the extent to which I believe it will impact the 2026 elections. In this article, I’ll be doing exactly that.

The Trajectory of Donald Trump's Approval Rating

To understand where Trump’s approval ratings are likely heading, it’s first important to note where they currently stand. Donald Trump currently holds a net approval of minus-8, with 52% of Americans disapproving of his presidency compared to just 44% approving. This is down four points from a month ago, when 50% of Americans disapproved of Trump compared to 46% then having approved, and figures to only worsen in the coming months. Trump’s most recent landmark achievement to date, a recently passed legislative package dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill,” introduced sweeping changes to the American economy that involved financial cuts to popular government programs such as Medicare and student loan forgiveness. These changes are therefore unsurprisingly unpopular, with a recent poll from CNN finding that 61% of Americans disapprove of the contents of the bill (one of the defining outputs of Trump’s administration to date), a development likely to push Trump’s approval rating only further down ahead of the 2026 election cycle.

How Will Trump's Approval Rating Affect the 2026 Election Cycle?

The extent to which a president’s approval rating affects their party in election cycles where they are not on the ballot (which Trump will not be) often depends on how closely voters associate the president with his party. In Trump’s case, it’s safe to say that he is currently bigger news than the Republican Party as a whole, meaning his standing amongst the public will likely have a major impact on the outcome of the 2026 elections. As such, due to Trump’s popularity being low, I currently have the Republican Party losing seats in both the Senate and House of Representatives in 2026, with Democrats gaining control over the latter. I expect the Democratic victory in the House in 2026 to be relatively comfortable, and if Trump’s approval rating continues to go down (which I expect it to), it will get only more so. However, I do not see them achieving a landslide victory in the House, nor do I see the Republicans losing control of the Senate as a realistic possibility, no matter how low Trump’s approval rating may be. Despite the sitting president’s approval rating significantly affecting the national environment in midterm elections, the entrenchment of party loyalty, which I talked about in more detail in a previous article (the shameless self-promo ends here, I promise) that has come to dominate American politics in the past decade will ensure that the losses the Republican Party will likely endure in 2026 will not be severe. These days, most voters are simply too attached to their parties to even consider voting the other way. The small group of truly independent voters remaining will ultimately decide the closest individual elections, likely in the Democrats’ favor in 2026, but their impact will not be strong enough to result in any significant advantages for either party, solely due to lack of numbers. Therefore, while Donald Trump’s approval rating will affect the Republican Party’s performance in 2026 more so than the public perception of any other American political figure, it will not be the end-all-be-all of the upcoming election cycle.