2026 Senate Election Prediction 2.0

It has now (crazily) been three months since I last published my first round of 2026 Senate and House of Representatives election predictions, and as per the previously promised quarterly prediction schedule, it is now time for me to publish my summer 2025 predictions for the Senate and House (my second overall edition for both races, hence the title “2.0”). In the time between this Senate prediction and my previous one back in early April of this year, little has changed in a vacuum, aside from a handful of retirement announcements from a handful of incumbents in mostly non-competitive states and a national environment that now slightly favors Democrats compared to where it was in the spring due to Republican President Donald Trump’s steadily declining popularity. However, on a somewhat more discreet level, various political developments that have occurred over the past few months have given us a clearer indication as to who the nominees will be in each race, a particularly helpful piece of information when evaluating potentially competitive races. As such, I’ve been able to optimize my predictions by state to be (at least in my eyes) more accurate, as can be seen in the map below. Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at my current predictions.

While I traditionally label states according to projected margin of victory, this map is labeled according to overall probability of victory, with safe (greater than 99%), likely (75-99%), lean (60-75%), and tilt (50.1-60%) states. Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

As can be seen in the map above, my overall predictions for the 2026 Senate elections have not changed: I still have Republicans maintaining control of the chamber with 52 seats, with Democrats narrowly gaining control of the seat in North Carolina. However, in both highly competitive races and a few slightly less competitive elections, recent developments have precipitated slight changes in my ratings, most having to do with clarity on likely party nominees. As I did in my previous edition of senate predictions, let’s take a look at every race I do not currently have listed as safe for either major party in order from least to most competitive, with brief explanations for each specific classification.

Texas

Texas, a strongly Republican state on the presidential level, would not be listed as competitive if not for a national environment likely to favor Democrats. Even in spite of that, I would still classify the 2026 race in Texas as Safe Republican if the party’s nominee ends four-term incumbent John Cornyn, whose relatively moderate political platforms would be enough to easily withstand any form of Democratic challenger. However, Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from the far-right Ken Paxton, Texas’ Attorney General. If Cornyn withstands the challenge from Paxton, this race will return to Safe Republican status. If Paxton wins the primary, Republicans would still be favored, but his extreme right policies would likely be enough to shift this race to a Lean Republican classification. For now, I’ll settle for a pessimistic Likely Republican.

New Hampshire

Little has changed in New Hampshire since my previous predictions. As incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen opted not to run for a fifth term, this is an open seat, but New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning state on the national level, and as we already knew months ago that the Democratic nominee is likely to be current House Representative from the state’s 2nd district Chris Pappas, I was merely waiting for more clarity on the Republican nominee, which now appears set to be former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who I view as a weak candidate overall. In addition to establishment political policies viewed as out of touch by most Republicans, Brown is not even from the state of New Hampshire politically and previously lost a senate election in the state in 2014, leaving this race firmly classified as Likely Democratic. Much like Texas, I could see this race being moved up to safe status in the near future.

Michigan

The consensus probably has Michigan, a state that voted for the Republican candidate by over a percentage point in the most recent presidential election, listed as highly competitive. However, as can be seen with my Likely Democratic classification, I believe that the competitiveness of Michigan’s race in 2026 is somewhat overrated. As far as I’m concerned, the national environment makes Michigan a Lean Democratic race with generic candidates, and when looking at the likely nominees for each party, Democrats clearly have the edge. The Democratic nominee looks set to be House Representative Haley Stevens from the state’s 11th district, who is, in all terms, a strong candidate, while the Republican nominee will likely be former House Representative Mike Rogers. Rogers, much like Scott Brown in New Hampshire, previously lost a senate election in his state. However, for Rogers, his loss took place in 2024, leaving it fresh in Michigan voter’s minds, and making him a very weak candidate overall. If current House Republican Bill Huizenga from the state’s 4th district seeks and wins his party’s nomination, this race will become more competitive, potentially even moving to Tilt Democratic status. For now, however, I see this race as Likely Democratic.

Alaska

Like New Hampshire, little has changed in Alaska’s 2026 senate race since my previous round of predictions. Alaska is a Republican-leaning but Democratic-trending state on the national level, and in the right national environment, it could be highly competitive. However, the status of this race depends fully on whether or not highly popular Democratic former House Representative Mary Peltola ends up running. Peltola, who has shown both the ability to win statewide elections in hostile environments and a wide range of appeal to voters in Alaska, could have a genuine chance of unseating Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan if things go right in a prospective campaign. However, if Peltola opts not to run, pencil this race in as Safe Republican.

Georgia

As far as states go on the national level, Georgia is about as competitive as you can get, with Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the state by just over 2 percentage points in the most recent presidential election. However, what puts this race currently in the favor of Democrats is the fact that they have a very strong incumbent in Jon Ossoff (who I am particularly high on as a candidate, both in the senate and presidentially). I’m so high on Ossoff as a candidate that I can confidently say that I do not see a single Georgia Republican unseating him in the current national environment. Ossoff’s unique combination of youth, appeal, and charisma (which I covered more extensively in a previous article) makes him one of the strongest candidates Democrats can offer at any level, and given his prowess, I’d say this race is more likely to move up to Likely Democratic than into the Republican column as the 2026 election cycle plays out.

Maine

As with my previous senate predictions, the outcome of Maine’s 2026 senate race is entirely dependent on whether or not incumbent Republican Susan Collins chooses to run for re-election, a decision that we still have no inclination of. Collins is a very interesting senate candidate as one of the few Republicans remaining in congress considered to be loyal to interests other than those of Donald Trump, and as such, has been able to maintain her seat for six terms despite Maine being a Democratic-leaning state on the national level. Therefore, if she opts to run for re-election, I would expect her to win, even despite recent reports that her popularity may be declining. It also doesn’t hurt her case that Democrats have yet to nominate a strong candidate for this race, but if someone like Janet Mills, the state’s current governor gets involved, or if Collins’ popularity declines further, this race could be moved down from Lean Republican, potentially even into the Democratic column.

North Carolina

By a comfortable margin, I believe North Carolina will be the most competitive senate race in 2026. At the present moment, I believe it will also be the Democratic Party’s only flip tentative on what ends up happening in Maine. North Carolina is a highly competitive state on the national level with perhaps a slight Republican lean, and in the national environment I currently expect in 2026, its race would be a complete tossup between incumbent Republican Thom Tillis and a generic Democratic challenger. The primary reason I currently have this race classified as Tilt Democratic is the potential candidacy of Democratic former Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper, a highly popular and well-known candidate within the state. Cooper has indicated interest in running for this seat, and if he does eventually do so, I have this race as Tilt to Lean Democratic. However, if he does not, and the Democrats end up nominating former House Representative Wiley Nickel, I would classify this race as Tilt Republican. This race, crucial and highly competitive, is definitely one to watch in the coming months.