2028 Election Prediction: Andy Beshear vs JD Vance

As I’ve been saying incessantly for the better part of a month to this point, the 2028 presidential election cycle, though not necessarily around the corner, is drawing ever closer, and prospective candidates are beginning to swirl. Recently, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who I tabbed as a potential leading Democratic candidate for the 2028 cycle in a previous article of mine, has come out publicly and stated that he would consider running for president if he feels that he can “successfully unite the country” come election time.

While this statement is far from an official campaign declaration, it signals a clear willingness to run on the part of Beshear that in my eyes, significantly raises his chances of running for the Democratic nomination in 2028. Therefore, in this article, I’ll be pitting him against current Vice President JD Vance, whom as I have previously discussed, I believe to be the heavy favorite to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Many of the election predictions I’ve posted recently have been highly hypothetical, but this is a matchup I could absolutely see happening, especially in light of Beshear’s recent comments. So, with that all being said, let’s take a look at how I think the electoral map would look in an election between Andy Beshear and JD Vance if it were held today.

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

As can be seen in the map above, I currently have Andy Beshear defeating JD Vance by the narrowest of margins in a direct presidential matchup. However, this one could really go either way, and the ultimate result would depend on how the “rust belt” Midwestern swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (states that have voted together in every election since 1988) end up voting. Due to both candidates being more moderate than the recent string of nominees by either of their parties, I would expect this election to be more competitive across the board and receive lower turnout than previous presidential races, with reliably Republican states such as Kansas and reliably Democratic states such as Minnesota being closer percentage wise than they otherwise would, though they would still remain in their respective party columns. Beshear in particular would be a non-traditional candidate by recent standards amongst the Democrats, presenting a unique range of appeal (which I’ll get to in a bit) that could draw a few conservative voters into the Democratic coalition. However, this matchup, much like almost every other, would ultimately be decided by the seven “core swing states” that have decided the past three elections (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada), with the aforementioned rust belt trio being of particular importance. So let’s take a look at where I think Beshear and Vance respectively do well, and why I believe that with all things considered, in a direct electoral matchup between them, Beshear would narrowly win.

Where Beshear Does Well

Beshear is, by all accounts, different to other modern Democrats. He is currently the governor of a state that voted for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump by a margin of 30.5%, yet boasts an approval rating of 68%, the single highest approval number amongst Democratic governors. He also not only relatively comfortably won re-election in 2023 by 5 percentage points, but defeated a Republican incumbent in 2019 to win initial election to his office (both results obviously coming in extremely unfavorable statewide political environments). His appeal to rural and conservative voters, two groups traditionally heavily unfavorable to Democrats, would be unmatched within his party, making him a strong candidate for swing states such as Georgia while making traditionally Republican states such as Kansas and Alaska closer than usual. Due to the moderate progressivism that has allowed Beshear to win repeatedly in Kentucky, he would also have strong appeal to suburban voters, keeping him competitive in swing states such as Arizona and North Carolina (though I think he would narrowly lose both) while ultimately handing him Georgia, albeit narrowly. However, this same political philosophy also contributes to Beshear’s greatest electoral weakness: cities. His political ideology, while appealing to moderate and conservative voters far greater than most Democratic candidates, would not be as popular amongst far-left progressive voters who tend to be more concentrated in cities. Thus, Beshear’s turnout levels in Democratic cities, particularly amongst young and minority voters, would be relatively low, losing him swing states such as Nevada and Arizona while keeping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania exceptionally close. However, I believe due to his gains with rural and suburban voters, Beshear would be able to do just enough to win the Midwestern trio, and therefore, the election as a whole.

Where Vance Does Well

As a Republican presidential candidate, JD Vance grades out as average to slightly above average in my eyes. He has clear strengths and weaknesses that would be exposed in any presidential matchup, but in this particular matchup with Beshear, I believe that both would be even more apparent than usual. What I essentially mean by this is that Beshear’s strengths are Vance’s weaknesses, while Beshear’s weaknesses are Vance’s strengths. Due to a far less outspoken and controversial personality than his 2024 running mate Donald Trump, Vance would be a far better candidate for voters in cities and moderate suburban voters, though Beshear would out-moderate him (see what I did there?) in the latter regard. However, those same traits would make him an inferior candidate for rural and highly conservative voters, meaning that much like Beshear, his turnout levels amongst the base of his party would be relatively subpar. However, due to his ties to Donald Trump, Vance would likely be a strong candidate for minority voters, continuing Republican-friendly trends recently exhibited by the voting group mostly in Southern swing states. Ultimately, these factors would make him a strong candidate for more urban-centric swing states such as Nevada and Arizona, while he would perform worse in states with significant rural populations such as Georgia and Pennsylvania.

A JD Vance vs Andy Beshear matchup for president in 2028 would fundamentally be a battle decided not by who scores greater victories in swing states, but who suffers fewer defeats. If Beshear overperforms in rural areas while maintaining decent turnout from the Democratic base, he would be heavily favored to win this matchup. However, if Vance performs well (for a Republican) in metropolitan areas while turning out solid numbers from the base of his own party, he would be the significant favorite. In the current national environment, which I would say is slipping away from Republicans, I see the former outcome as more likely, with Beshear narrowly winning, but if Republicans begin to gain momentum nationally, I could easily see Vance winning the crucial states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which would give him the election. As far as my 2028 presidential election predictions go, this matchup is about as close to a tossup as one can get.