2028 Election Prediction: Roy Cooper vs JD Vance

The 2028 election isn’t exactly around the corner, but the start of its cycle is closer than many may think. Donald Trump, the winner of our most recent election cycle in 2024, for example, initially announced his presidential candidacy on November 15, 2022, nearly two years before election day. Many potential 2028 presidential candidates are already swirling (feel free to check out my previous article on these developments) and I feel that it’s about time to get into the fun business of imagining potential presidential matchups and predicting their outcomes (seriously, it’s my favorite thing to do).

Of these many potential candidates, two of the most high profile (and in my opinion, most likely to win their party’s nomination if they run) are Democratic former Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper and Republican Vice President JD Vance. Vance is a near shoo-in for me to win the 2028 Republican nomination if he runs, with a grip on every necessary fundamental to eventually become the face of his party: name recognition, political pedigree, a lack of baggage relative to other high-profile Republican potential candidates (with all due respect to his couch-related stories), and most importantly, the all but certain endorsement of Donald Trump. As a candidate, he doesn’t stand out to me as an excellent choice, but due to his projected pragmatism and a public image far greater than either of the candidates in the previous three presidential election cycles, he’s also not a bad one. Roy Cooper, on the other hand, is less likely to run than Vance, and would have a more difficult time winning his party’s nomination even if he does, but I believe that due to his unique range of appeal to both moderates and progressives within the Democratic party, he’d be a frontrunner. As a candidate, I see him as about the best the Democrats could run: his easy going personality, proven ability to win elections in unfavorable environments, and significant regional advantage give him the edge over almost any Republican challenger with current political trends being taken into account. Now, with all that being said, let’s take a look at how I think an election between Roy Cooper and JD Vance would play out if it was held today.

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

The first thing you may think after looking at this map is that I have significant Democratic bias. Though I have previously erred in that direction (see any of my 2024 election predictions), I assure you that this is not the case. In fact, as I hinted to in my article about potential 2028 presidential candidates, I see the general political environment as completely neutral, or even slightly favorable to Republicans. However, Cooper is, to me, the strongest candidate Democrats could run on the presidential level in 2028, and represents the party’s current electoral ceiling. Let’s take a look at why I think that is.

Why Cooper Would Do So Well

As shown in the map above, I currently see Cooper sweeping all seven of the core swing states most pivotal to the ultimate outcome of the general election (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan). He, at present, is the only Democratic candidate that I believe would do so, with his home state of North Carolina being central to this fact. Cooper would enjoy a massive home state advantage in North Carolina, having finished his term with a plus-14 point net approval rating despite the state voting substantially against Democrats on the presidential level in 2024, and won his most recent gubernatorial election in the state by a comfortable 4.5 point margin. Even though North Carolina narrowly leans Republican on the presidential level, I believe that Cooper, through his popularity in the state and appeal to moderate and suburban voters, would be able to win it. These advantages would extend to other Southern swing states such as Georgia and Arizona, both of which are more favorable to Democrats on the presidential level, and both of which I believe Cooper would also win.

Cooper is a particularly strong candidate for Southern states, but many of his advantages would also extend to key Northern swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, albeit to a lesser extent. While Cooper’s appeal to moderate suburbanites would not be as impactful in these states as in a Georgia or Arizona, he would be propelled to victory by his appeal to a different group of voters: minority voters. Cooper’s already high approval ratings and significant electoral victories saw extremely high turnout and margins of victory amongst minority voters, particularly African-American voters, a critical voting bloc in the Midwest. His ability to draw these minority voters to the ballot box in cities located in swing states such as Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, despite not having a geographical advantage in the region, would be enough to win the Midwestern swing states, and therefore, achieve a comfortable electoral victory over JD Vance.