My Generic 2028 Election Prediction

As even the least engaged of my followers will know, I’ve done many 2028 presidential election predictions in the past few months, with whole hosts of potential candidates being floated, particularly on the Democratic side. In each of these predictions, I’ve weighed the respective strength of each party nominee against the national environment, or standard expectation of how each state will vote. However, to my surprise as much as yours (if I’m qualified to make that assertion), I have yet to outline how each state would vote based on the current political landscape with the quality of Democratic and Republican candidates completely equalized, which is the purpose of this article. This prediction pits the most average possible Democratic nominee against their equally average Republican counterpart, solely focusing on the trends and ratings within states. With that all being said, let’s take a look at how I think each state would vote if a 2028 election between generic Democratic and Republican candidates were held today.

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

As can be seen in the map above, I currently have the generic Democrat beating the generic Republican in 2028, flipping the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia from 2024. Due primarily to current Republican President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings (37% approval nationwide at the time of writing), I believe that the national environment has shifted decisively in favor of Democrats, with the party now having the clear advantage for both the 2026 midterms and 2028 general election. In regard to 2028 in particular, there are also a number of state-specific political trends instrumental in shaping the national environment, particularly in the “core seven” swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. As these seven states are by far the most important in determining any election in the modern political area, let’s run through each of them one by one to see why I believe they will vote a certain way.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin definitely surprised me in 2024 by being the least Republican Northern swing state by margin of victory, with Donald Trump only winning it by 0.86%, and despite the loss by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris statewide, there were still a number of encouraging signs for the party, particularly in the suburbs. For one, the state’s four largest counties by population (Milwaukee County, Dane County, Waukesha County, and Brown County) all either shifted towards the Democrats or shifted Republican less than the national average of 5.9%. Arguably more importantly, though, the WOW (Washington, Ozaukee, and the aforementioned Waukesha) counties comprising most of the suburbs of Milwaukee (the state’s largest city) all shifted towards the Democratic Party in an election cycle where few counties did so nationwide, signifying a significant Democratic trend in the state’s cities and suburbs. These trends were counteracted in 2024 by strong Republican trends in Wisconsin’s rural areas, particularly in the Western part of the state, that allowed Trump to still flip it from the Democratic column, but with Trump’s approval currently being low, these trends should slow in 2028. Combined with a likely acceleration of Democratic shifts in the WOW counties and cities, I believe the national environment currently projects Wisconsin as a relatively comfortable victory for the Democrats at around 2-3% overall.

Michigan

Michigan, like neighboring Wisconsin, surprised me in 2024, but in the opposite way to the Badger State. I strongly expected it to be the most Democratic of the core seven swing states like it was in 2020, but instead, it voted more Republican than Wisconsin, with Donald Trump winning it by 1.4%. Looking at the Democratic performance in Michigan as a whole in 2024, things honestly look pretty solid, particularly in the suburban parts of the state, but with one exception: Wayne County. Wayne County, by far the largest county in Michigan and home of Detroit, shifted, 9.2 points towards the Republican Party between 2020 and 2024, significantly greater than the national average in a truly worrying sign for Democrats. As a former Michigander and resident of Wayne County myself, I can say that I do not expect Republican trends in Detroit to reverse course anytime soon, and as long as Detroit is trending Republican, Michigan will be trending Republican. That being said, I believe the Democratic trends in much of the rest of the state boosted by the current national environment makes Democrats the clear favorites in Michigan in 2028 in a projected victory margin of just over 1%. However, 2028 may be the last time a Democratic candidate wins in the state for a number of years.

Pennsylvania

More so than either Wisconsin or Michigan, Kamala Harris’ performance in Pennsylvania in 2024 provided worrying signs for Democrats long-term. Not only was it the most Republican of the Northern swing states, with Donald Trump winning it by 1.7%, but the specific shifts worst for the Democratic Party occurred in areas where they are usually expected to do well. Unlike Wisconsin and Michigan, the results in the suburbs and city center of the state’s largest city (Philadelphia) were not positive, even relative to the national average. Philadelphia County, the state’s largest county by population and the base of the Democratic vote in Pennsylvania, shifted 5 points towards the Republican Party between 2020 and 2024 (and even more concerningly, has shifted 12.5% Republican since 2012), nearly in line with the national average. Large suburban counties in traditionally Democratic Eastern Pennsylvania also saw similar shifts, matching or exceeding the shift in Philadelphia County. In Monroe County, for example, home to over 163,000 people, Donald Trump performed 7.1 points better in 2024 than he did in 2020. Ironically, the strongest signs for Democrats in Pennsylvania came from the state’s rural areas in 2024, with most of its rural counties voting within a percentage point of where they did in 2020 despite the Republican share of the popular vote increasing by significantly more. With 2028 likely to be a better year for Democrats nationwide, I believe Democratic shifts in rural Pennsylvania, along with a sizable shift in Democratic-trending Allegheny County (the state’s second-largest county by population and home of Pittsburgh, its second-largest city), will be enough for Democrats to win the state in 2028 given the current national environment, but by a slim margin of just about 0.5% in, much like with Michigan, likely the party’s last victory in the state for quite some time. 

Georgia

Of the core seven swing states, Georgia is the one that I am most confident will vote Democratic in 2024. Despite voting more Republican than Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2024, with Donald Trump winning the state by 2.2%, the performance of Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party in Georgia was objectively one of their best. Much like Wisconsin, pretty much all of the state’s largest urban and suburban counties either shifted Democratic or shifted Republican considerably left than the national average, all exhibiting strong Democratic trends overall. In Georgia specifically, this is a significant positive for Democrats, as only 26.6% of Georgia residents live in rural areas, as opposed to 33.6% in Wisconsin, for example. As such, Democrats’ primary gains in Georgia are coming from a more substantially dominant portion of the state’s population (in counties that also happen to be the fastest growing in the state), meaning that they are more able to rely on the urban and suburban vote to win statewide. The shifts back this strategy up too: between 2020 and 2024, not a single county in the Atlanta metropolitan area, which makes up approximately 60% of Georgia’s population, shifted more Republican than the national average, with the majority of the counties shifting towards the Democratic Party. With growth and gains in Atlanta only likely to accelerate for the Democrats ahead of 2028, I believe the national environment currently projects a Democratic victory in Georgia by just about 3%.

North Carolina

North Carolina is arguably the most interesting of the core seven swing states looking towards 2028, and based on the current national environment, I think it will be the closest. North Carolina is somewhat of a tale of two worlds when it comes to political trends, with both a host of Democratic-trending metropolitan areas in the Western part of the state and a number of mostly minority-heavy Republican-trending rural areas in its Eastern half. Generally, the trends in North Carolina seem to be favorable to Democrats (though not to the same degree as a Georgia, for example), though the state’s national standing is still arguably the most Republican of the core seven (with Donald Trump winning the state by 3.2% in 2024 and the state as a whole not having voted Democratic on the presidential level since 2008). With the national environment in 2028 currently looking favorable towards Democrats, this makes North Carolina an extremely close and heavily candidate-dependent race. For example, if the Democratic candidate in 2028 was someone like former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, the Democrats would likely win the state by a relatively comfortable margin (as I outlined in my previous 2028 election prediction article involving Cooper). However, with a weak Democratic or strong Republican candidate, I could easily see Republicans doing the same. For now, I’m classifying the state as Republican by the absolute slimmest of margins due to one key reason: minority-heavy counties tend to be more resistant to the national environment, and I therefore believe that the Republican-trending counties in Eastern North Carolina will stay just Republican enough to win the party the state in 2028. That being said, I’d project the margin of victory to be within 0.25%.

Nevada

Nevada has always been sort of under the radar compared to the other core seven swing states due primarily to the state only accounting for 6 electoral votes, which has left its electoral shifts to be more suspect. It was the only state of the core seven to vote against Donald Trump in 2016, but was one of the most Republican of the seven in 2024, with Trump winning it by 3.1%. Nevada is much more straightforward politically than most states, with the metropolitan areas of Las Vegas and Reno making up almost all of its population (corresponding Clark County and Washoe County together make up 89% of Nevada’s population). However, Las Vegas, by the state’s largest city, functions somewhat differently politically than most cities in the United States, due in large part to its high Hispanic population. While metropolitan areas as a whole are heavily Democratic-trending across the country, Hispanic voters have been a notoriously Republican-trending group over the past few election cycles, creating an interesting paradox that will make Nevada a very close race in 2028. Much like North Carolina, the factors that will ultimately win Democrats or Republicans the state are heavily candidate-dependent, though in Nevada specifically, the candidates who would perform best would have strong appeal to Hispanics. Ultimately, based on a national environment that currently favors Democrats and the fact that Donald Trump’s approval rating with Hispanics is currently just 32%, I believe that national trends currently project Nevada as narrowly Democratic in 2028, with a margin of victory around 0.5%.

Arizona

Like Nevada, Arizona swung heavily towards the Republican Party in 2024 due in large part to the significant influence of Hispanic voters. Also like Nevada, almost all of Arizona’s voting base is located within the metropolitan areas of its two largest cities (in Arizona’s case, Phoenix and Tucson, with corresponding Maricopa and Pima Counties, respectively, together making up 74% of the state’s overall population). Therefore, any reasonable individual would assume that the trends between 2024 and 2028 in Nevada and Arizona would be highly similar, and I would largely agree with that, with the stipulation that Arizona’s cities are slightly more Democratic-trending. However, unlike Nevada, Arizona is a state that I am confident will remain in the Republican column in 2028, despite a national environment currently not favorable to the party, due primarily to the fact that Donald Trump won the state by a colossal 5.5% in 2024. Even more worryingly for Democrats, Trump’s gains in Maricopa County, a largely suburban county where he was considered a weak candidate, ran roughly even with those in the national popular vote between 2020 and 2024. While Arizona is a Democratic-trending state overall, a five-point shift is likely too much to ask for the average Democratic candidate (of course, a strong Democrat could still pull off such a performance). At the moment, I believe that the national environment projects Arizona as a Republican victory in 2028 by a margin of roughly 1%. Fundamentally, if any of the core seven votes Republican in 2028, it will be Arizona.