My First 2026 Gubernatorial Election Prediction

In all the ruckus that defines the Senate and House of Representatives elections in midterm years such as the upcoming 2026 election cycle, the Gubernatorial elections, which see the majority of the nations’ states vote to either retain their current governor or elect a new one, tend to receive subpar attention. As to not follow along with this trend, I thought I’d drop my current prediction for how I believe the 2026 Gubernatorial elections would play out if they were held today (though my Gubernatorial election predictions will only be released every six months, as opposed to every three months for my Senate and House predictions, the next editions of which will be released soon).

With all that only slightly important information out of the way, let’s take a look at how I believe the 2026 Gubernatorial elections would play out in the current political environment.

States are classified as safe (10% or greater margin of victory), likely (5-10%), lean (1-5%), and tilt (less than 1%). Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

My more politically seasoned readers may notice that this map looks slightly different from the general election maps they have become so used to seeing, which brings me to an important point about gubernatorial elections: while the national environment does still affect a number of gubernatorial races, factors such as the popularity and name recognition of individual candidates is far more influential on the ultimate outcome than a Presidential, Senate, or House race. As such, states such as Pennsylvania, considered highly competitive on the national level, are classified as Safe Democratic, while the race in Vermont, nationally seen as one of the most Democratic states in the country, is classified as Safe Republican, both due to highly popular incumbents of each respective party.

In terms of results, I have the Democrats and Republicans both achieving neutral net gains, meaning that neither party gains a numerical advantage compared to prior to the 2026 election cycle. According to my predictions, each party will flip one seat, with the Democrats winning a narrow race against Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo in Nevada, and Republicans relatively comfortably gaining control of an open seat in Kansas, a highly Republican state on the national level. However, while I currently do not believe that Democrats will suffer a net loss in 2026, the vast majority of races likely to be close are currently held by the Democratic Party. That being said, I believe the current national environment will at least prevent them from losing seats on the national level. Let’s quickly run through all the closest races to see why that is.

Nevada

If I were to put my money on a single gubernatorial race to be the most competitive in 2026, it would be Nevada (with Georgia as a close second). This may seem slightly surprising given that the race contains a Republican incumbent in Joe Lombardo running for re-election in a state that the Republican candidate won by over 3% in the most recent presidential election. However, in 2026, due to the currently low approval rating of Republican president Donald Trump (currently underwater by 12 points), I believe that the national environment will be just enough in the Democrats’ favor for Lombardo to be unseated by a strong challenger in current Attorney General Aaron Ford.

Arizona

This race, despite Arizona being a slightly Republican-leaning state on the national level, is pretty straightforward to me. The Democrats have a popular incumbent in Katie Hobbs (whose popularity with Republicans actually exceeds that with Democrats at the time of writing) who will be running for re-election in 2026, and coupled with a national environment likely to be favorable to Democrats, her popularity and name recognition alone should be enough for her to relatively comfortably win a race against any Republican challenger. Right now, it appears that her challenger will be Andy Biggs, a House Representative from Arizona’s 5th congressional district, and while Biggs is not a bad candidate by any means, I don’t see him as strong enough to push this race any further than leaning Democratic in the current environment.

Wisconsin

The outcome of the 2026 race in Wisconsin is highly dependent on a single factor: if popular Democratic incumbent Tony Evers opts to run for re-election, I’d move this race up to lean Democratic, but if he does not, I’d consider placing Wisconsin in the Republican column. The Republican candidate here is likely to be Tom Tiffany, the current House Representative for the state’s 7th congressional district, and due to having solid name recognition within the state, I think he’d be an average to above average candidate. Against Evers, that likely won’t be enough. Against a different Democrat? It could be, depending on the candidate. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see who the Democrats end up nominating for this race.

Michigan

Of the races I have listed as competitive, Michigan is probably the least likely to change party hands. Although Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the state by 1.4% in 2024, Michigan has long had a history of electing Democratic governors by comfortable margins, most recently with Gretchen Whitmer’s landslide gubernatorial victory of 10.5% over Republican challenger Tudor Dixon in 2022. In 2026, the Democrats have yet another strong nominee in Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s current Secretary of State, while the Republican nominee will most likely be John James, a House Representative from the state’s 10th congressional district, a matchup that Benson should comfortably win. Depending on how things play out in this race, I could easily see it being classified as likely Democratic in the future.

Georgia

Georgia’s gubernatorial race in 2026 is an enigma to me. Based on national trends, one would be likely to assume that Democrats would be favored to win in Georgia, but looking at the candidates who have currently declared for this race, Republicans clearly have the edge, with current state Attorney General Chris Carr not slated to face a noteworthy Democratic challenger at the time of writing aside from Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, whose progressive tilt poorly fits a moderate Southern state. With all things considered, including a national environment favorable to Democrats, I ultimately settled on a tilt Republican classification. However, of all the gubernatorial races I currently view as highly competitive, Georgia’s is, in my opinion, the most likely to see significant change in the next few months. Depending on who the Democrats ultimately end up nominating, the possibilities of this race range from likely Democratic to likely Republican.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire differs from the other races classified as potentially close by being a state not considered highly competitive on the national level. While the state has a competitive history, proving instrumental in presidential elections during the 2000s and 2010s, New Hampshire is currently considered a Democratic-leaning state. However, I currently have its 2026 gubernatorial race classified as leaning Republican, due to two main factors: unlike most states, New Hampshire holds gubernatorial elections every two years instead of four, so the national environment (which I believe will favor Democrats) has less of an effect on each race, and unlike many other gubernatorial seats currently held by the Republican Party, they have a popular incumbent (currently boasting a net approval rating 8 points to the positive) running for re-election in Kelly Ayotte. While Ayotte’s approval rating has been slightly decreasing over the past few months, it is still firmly in the positive, and given that Democrats do not currently have a notable face within their candidate pool, it’s hard to see her being unseated in 2026.