The 2024 election cycle has officially begun. On August 23, 2023, eight major Republican candidates squared off at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee to pitch their campaigns to Republican primary voters. The list of candidates present at the debate included some famous figures within the Republican party, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but had one notable absence: former president Donald Trump (currently over 40 percent ahead of any other candidate in terms of support at the time of writing).
Around a month ago, I wrote an article ranking every major Republican presidential candidate by their likelihood of winning the nomination. Let’s take a look at how I think many of these candidates performed at the debate, along with what their performances spell for the future of their campaigns.
Asa Hutchinson
The debate participant I ranked the lowest last month is former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, primarily due to his unpopularity with the Trump base and lack of name recognition. At the debate, he did little to change this. He seldom spoke, and when he did, his messages were not all that inspiring. He tried to position himself as a traditional conservative candidate, taking standard Republican positions such as supporting tax cuts and restrictions on abortion, but his performances were largely overshadowed by the other candidates. Overall, I’m not expecting much from Hutchinson’s campaign, and that was largely unchanged by his performance at the debate.
Doug Burgum
Prior to the debate, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum interested me as a candidate: he was one of the first candidates to clear the donor threshold to qualify for the debate and had some traction heading into the debate due to the publicity he gained by injuring his leg just hours before it. Therefore, I was slightly disappointed by how little Burgum participated during the debate. Similar to Hutchinson, Burgum seldom spoke and offered pretty standard positions, which made him appear a pretty boring candidate overall. I’m still hoping for better things from Burgum’s campaign in the future, but during the debate, he certainly didn’t help his case.
Chris Christie
Chris Christie’s debate performance went exactly how I expected it to. As the face of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party, I expected Christie to experience his fair share of controversy, and he certainly did. He was the most vocal critic of former President Trump and received considerable backlash for some of his statements, even being openly booed by the crowd for some of his anti-Trump remarks. However, I don’t think the outlook of his campaign changed all that much after the debate. He is still the candidate that most NeverTrump Republicans will look to in the primary, but remains highly unpopular with the Trump base. However, unfortunately for Christie, he did not have a breakout moment during the debate (which his campaign was undoubtedly hoping for), so it remains highly unlikely that he will be a serious contender to win the nomination.
Nikki Haley
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley had a highly successful debate and was arguably its best performer. She ticked all the boxes for a quintessential productive performance: she was vocal but didn’t say anything too outlandish, and also made herself stand out due to her positions on abortion. Her statements about the lack of viability of an abortion ban, as well as how it would affect women in the United States, provide a unique sense of appeal to center-right female voters. I definitely think Haley’s campaign is in a better spot than it was prior to the debate - which is backed up by post-debate recent polls, one of which currently has her in third place, at 11 percent support - and if she plays her cards right in the coming months, she could become a serious contender to win the nomination.
Tim Scott
If I were to pick someone whose campaign was least impacted by the debate, it would be South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Scott was reasonably vocal throughout the debate, consistently portraying himself as a faith-and-flag conservative (socially conservative but more economically moderate). Most of his positions were very standard for a Republican candidate of this day and age, and overall, he came off as a relatable individual, but only a slightly above-average politician, which is similar to how I viewed his campaign before the debate. While Scott did not hurt his campaign, he didn’t help it much either.
Mike Pence
Former Vice President Mike Pence was one of the candidates I was most excited to see at the debate, and while he was the debate’s most vocal candidate, he didn’t have himself the greatest of nights. Whether it was arguing with the moderators or being attacked for his positions on abortion and the Trump indictments, Pence’s strategy of targeting the leading candidates largely backfired. He came off as a contrarian, which is not a desirable trait in a politician. I previously argued that Pence would still be one of the frontrunners in the race despite his unpopularity with the Trump base, but Pence’s performance in the debate did little to justify that point of view.
Vivek Ramaswamy
A month ago, I had businessman Vivek Ramaswamy ranked 3rd on my list of likelihood to win the Republican nomination, on the premise that he was a sleeper pick. So far, the results have supported that idea. He is currently polling at 7 percent support, third among all candidates, and has been rapidly gaining traction in recent weeks. However, his performance at the debate was a mixed bag, to say the least. While Ramaswamy was very vocal and articulate, some of the positions he took were too outlandish even for the Trump base. Ramaswamy’s declaration that climate change is a “hoax” was met with boos and backlash from the crowd, which is not a good sign for his campaign. On the contrary, some of his statements about the political system were highly appealing to young voters, who tend to be more extreme on the issues. Overall, I think Ramaswamy had a decent night, and sort of locked himself into third place in the race. I previously stated that I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramaswamy ended up as the vice president on a Trump presidential ticket, and based on his debate performance, I stand by that claim.
Ron DeSantis
In my opinion, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had the best night of any candidate on the stage relative to expectations. DeSantis, who has a reputation for being a subpar debater, more than held his own this Wednesday. Apart from a single moment where he hesitated to raise his hand on a question about supporting Trump, DeSantis’ performance was largely solid. His statements were reasonably unique, and he certainly came off as the type of strong, unrelenting leader that Republican voters adore. Aside from Nikki Haley, he seemed the most well-prepared candidate on stage. While DeSantis’ campaign has been largely collapsing in recent weeks, his debate performance should be more than enough to steady the ship.
However, despite not attending the debate, former president Donald Trump is still the clear frontrunner in this race. While DeSantis’ strong performance may close the gap a little, it’s far from enough for him to catch Trump. Just as I argued a month ago, unless Trump’s current criminal charges land him in prison or prevent him from running for president, it’s very difficult to see him losing the Republican nomination, and that hasn’t changed after the first primary debate.
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