Despite the 2024 general election being over a year away, the stage is already set for the Republican primary. Pretty much every major candidate who was considering entering the race has made a decision by now, and - according to political news outlet FiveThirtyEight - 11 have opted to vy for the Republican nomination, featuring names from former Vice President Mike Pence to former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson. While there is no counting anyone out in politics, some candidates certainly have better chances of winning the nomination than others. Here’s how I would currently rank them by their likelihood to win the Republican nomination:
11th Place: Will Hurd
Coming in 11th place is former representative Will Hurd from Texas. With all due respect to Hurd, his chance of winning the nomination is essentially zero. The reasons are pretty simple: not only is he a vocal member of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party (which doesn’t do very well in primaries, especially at the national level), but he also has arguably the least name recognition of any current major candidates. He ranked dead last in funds raised during the second quarter of 2023, and it currently looks unlikely that he will even qualify for the primary debates. While Hurd’s chance of winning the nomination isn’t absolutely zero, it would be an understatement to call that possibility a long shot as of now.
10th Place: Asa Hutchinson
In 10th place, we have Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas. His odds of winning the nomination are almost equally as low as Hurd’s for a lot of the same reasons. While Hutchinson may have more name recognition than Hurd, being the former governor of a state, he is still a vocal critic of former president Trump and ranked second-last in funds raised during the second quarter of 2023. Also, according to recent polls, Hutchinson is already viewed unfavorably by 23% of prospective Republican primary voters, yet only 31% of them know who he is. Yeah, not a good look.
9th Place: Francis Suarez
Coming in 9th place is the Mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez. While he has many of the same problems as Hutchinson and Hurd (lack of name recognition, funds raised, and notability), he is not a fully anti-Trump candidate, which gives him a wider range of potential appeal to the Republican base. Despite this, he is still in the extreme long-shot tier of candidate, and is currently unlikely to qualify for the Republican primary debates, as he is currently polling at 0% support.
8th Place: Chris Christie
Unlike the earlier candidates on this list, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie has plenty of name recognition within the Republican party. Back in 2012, he was even considered one of the favorites to win the presidential nomination. He performed decently in the fundraising race throughout the second quarter of 2023, managing to raise over $1.6 million. He has already qualified for the Republican primary debates, currently polling at 2.1%, above the 1 percent support threshold, and having met the donor threshold. However, Chris Christie is very unlikely to win the 2024 Republican primary, because although he is well-known, it is often for the wrong reasons. Chris Christie is one of the current faces of the anti-Trump movement within the Republican party and is currently in the negatives of net favorability by a colossal 28% among potential primary voters. While it is still very possible that Republican voters will drift away from Trump throughout the primaries, it’s highly unlikely that Christie would be their second choice, leaving him somewhat of a washed candidate at present.
7th Place: Doug Burgum
In 7th place is Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota. Like many earlier candidates on this list, Burgum lacks name recognition and notability. However, unlike the earlier candidates, he’ll have the money to rectify many of those issues. Burgum, who - though his campaign is partially self-run - raised a colossal $11.8 million (3rd among all candidates) in the second quarter of 2023, which clears the donor threshold to qualify for the first Republican debate (though Burgum is yet to reach the 1% support requirement in any major polls). Burgum can significantly improve his name recognition, but given that only 16% of Republican voters currently know who he is, he has a long (and I mean, LONG) way to go. But hey, we’ve seen billionaires come from out of nowhere to win the Republican nomination before.
6th Place: Nikki Haley
Here’s where we step things up a notch. Coming in 6th place is former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. Haley has all the basic things you could ask for in a candidate: decent fundraising numbers (over $5 million in the second quarter of 2023), a solid favorability rating (18% net favorability among prospective Republican primary voters), and decent name recognition. She has also already qualified for the first primary debate, having met both the support and donor thresholds. However, although she is currently polling at above 3%, her levels of support have been trending downwards in recent months, and I expect them to continue to do so, as other candidates gain more notability.
5th Place: Tim Scott
Slightly ahead of Nikki Haley is her fellow South Carolinan Tim Scott, who slots in at 5th place. As the only African-American Republican in the Senate, Scott’s campaign has a degree of upside to it. However, it faces many of the same problems as Haley’s. Scott’s campaign also had solid fundraising numbers (nearly $6 million) in the second quarter of 2023. He also has strong favorability (an impressive 42% net favorability among prospective Republican primary voters), reasonably strong name recognition, and has qualified for the first primary debate. However, just like Haley, Scott is currently polling in the low single digits (2.9%) and has recently seen a downward trend in his levels of support. While Scott to me has a higher chance of winning than Haley, I expect his support to also further decrease in the coming months.
4th Place: Mike Pence
Coming in 4th place is Mike Pence, the former Vice President of the United States. Were this based solely on recent trends, Pence would perform much worse on this list. His fundraising numbers were poor in the second quarter of 2023 (barely above $1.2 million), he is yet to meet the donor threshold to qualify for the first debate, and he is one of the more vocal anti-Trump candidates, despite being his former vice president. However, I believe that recent numbers are overestimating Pence’s downward trend. He is still viewed favorably among Republican voters (albeit by just a 4% margin), and is still polling ahead of the majority of his competition. Pence’s name recognition alone will keep him in the race, and he is still one of its frontrunners. But while I believe his campaign has become underrated in recent months, I still wouldn’t bet on him winning the nomination as of now.
3rd Place: Vivek Ramaswamy
In 3rd place, we have businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, my sleeper pick for the Republican nomination. Despite having little name recognition or political experience, he certainly has both the funds (nearly $8 million raised in the second quarter of 2023) and the momentum to negate those issues. His campaign is on an upward trend at a critical time: his levels of support have shot up in recent weeks, and he now sits at nearly 6%, third among all candidates. His campaign is also refraining from criticizing former president Donald Trump, so while it’s still unlikely that he will win the presidential nomination, I wouldn’t be surprised that if Trump wins, Ramaswamy ends up being his vice presidential pick.
2nd Place: Ron DeSantis
We enter the tier of serious contenders at 2nd place, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is seen as the consensus top challenger to former President Trump, with a war chest of funds (over $20 million raised in the second quarter of 2023, the most of all candidates), about as much name recognition as a governor can get, and very high favorability (42% net favorability). Though his numbers have been slightly dropping recently, he is still hovering around 20% support, well ahead of all other candidates except for Donald Trump. If Trump falters in any way, DeSantis is in a prime position to capitalize, and if any of Trump’s outlying court cases catch up to him, expect DeSantis to win the nomination.
1st Place: Donald Trump
Coming in 1st place, to little surprise, is former president Donald Trump, the current face of the Republican party. As a former president, this was always going to be Trump’s race to lose, and as months pass, the numbers indicate that his victory is only getting more likely. The Trump base still represents a significant portion of the Republican electorate, and that is backed up by his current numbers: 51% primary support and a 57% net favorability rating. His name recognition within the Republican party is unrivaled, and unless Trump’s current charges from his indictments land him in prison or prevent him from running for president, it’s very difficult to see him losing the Republican nomination. But hey, you never know.
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