My First 2026 Senate Election Prediction

The start of the 2026 election cycle is (crazily) less than a year away, and in various races, prospective candidates are beginning to position themselves to pursue positions in the Senate and House of Representatives. As we are drawing ever nearer to the meat and potatoes of these election cycles, with key races beginning to take clear shape, I feel that I am now capable of beginning to effectively predict their outcomes. This post will begin my 2026 Senate election prediction cycle, and the first edition of my House of Representatives prediction cycle will be posted concurrently. With all that being said, let’s take a look at where I believe the 2026 Senate races currently stand.

While I traditionally label states according to projected margin of victory, this map is labeled according to overall probability of victory, with safe (greater than 99%), likely (75-99%), lean (60-75%), and tilt (50.1-60%) states. Made using the YAPms political mapping tool.

As seen in this map, I currently have Republicans coming away from the 2026 election with 52 seats to the Democrats’ 48, with the Democrats gaining a single seat (North Carolina). While I believe that the national environment will favor Democrats, due to 2026 being a midterm year during the reign of a Republican president, the 2026 Senate map, races and incumbency advantages considered, favors Republicans, leaving Democrats with few opportunities to gain seats in an age where crossover voting (when individuals are willing to vote for Senate and House of Representatives candidates representing parties other than that which they support at the presidential level) is virtually nonexistent, leaving Republicans with a relatively comfortable maintained majority within the Senate chambers. As such, I currently have only seven of the 35 total races rated as competitive, and while I’m sure the safe-rated races will be the absolute center of attention amongst those in the respective states in which they are being held (sarcasm), I’ll solely be covering these seven races in greater detail, in order from least to most competitive.

Virginia

I currently have Virginia categorized as a likely Democratic state, but I do not believe it will be truly competitive. The only reason it is not currently classified as safe Democratic is the possibility that popular Republican governor Glenn Youngkin (who back in September of 2024, polled at a plus-23 approval rating, the sixth-highest of all governors in the country despite Virginia being reliably Democratic at the presidential level) may run, in which case this race could become interesting. If not, I expect incumbent Mark Warner to easily cruise to re-election.

Ohio

Ohio is my sole likely Republican state, but essentially profiles the same as Virginia in the opposite political direction: the possibility of a strong candidate from the party currently not favored joining the race and making it potentially interesting. In this case, that candidate is Sherrod Brown, the popular Democratic former senator from Ohio who only recently lost re-election (albeit closely) in 2024. Brown actually recently publicly expressed interest in running for this seat, making Ohio more likely to be competitive than Virginia. However, though Brown would likely make this race more competitive, I have serious doubts over his ability to win an election in Ohio, a state that voted for Republican Donald Trump by 12% in 2024, particularly given his previous loss the same year, keeping Republicans with the clear edge here.

Georgia

I currently have Georgia classified as leaning Democratic, but I would not describe this race as highly competitive. Much like Virginia and Ohio, the reason I have this race categorized a tier below where I truly believe it to be due to the possibility of a strong candidate from the opposing party running (in this case, popular Republican governor Brian Kemp). However, even in spite of this, I believe that Democrats have a number of factors going for them in this race. Incumbent Jon Ossoff is a very strong candidate (whose exploits in the 2020 Georgia runoffs have likely not been forgotten by the state’s voters), and his unique age and charisma-based appeal will only be further bolstered by a national environment likely to favor Democrats. I expect Kemp to recognize these trends and choose not to run for this seat, but until that is made certain, I’m not quite ready to classify this race as likely Democratic just yet.

Maine

Maine, which voted for Democrat Kamala Harris by 7% on the presidential level in 2024 but has a popular longtime Republican incumbent who won re-election by 9% in 2020 (when Maine voted more Democratic in the concurrent presidential election than it did four years later), is one of the more difficult races to categorize. I currently have it as lean Republican. Susan Collins, Maine’s longest-serving current member of Congress, has shown ability to continuously win elections despite the partisan lean of her state, and given that she profiles as the most moderate Republican in the Senate, I don’t see that changing even in a national environment that will likely favor Democrats.

Alaska

Alaska is my sleeper (or in the spirit of the recent March Madness tournament, upset) pick out of all the races this year. It has all the elements of an upset: a strong Democratic candidate to challenge the Republican incumbent in former house representative Mary Peltola, a national environment that favors Democrats, and general Democratic trends in the state. Though I have cautious optimism about the Democrats potentially winning this race, it’s difficult for me to bet on an actual victory in a state that Donald Trump won by 13% in 2024, so I still currently give the Republicans an edge here.

Michigan

Michigan is a highly competitive state on the national level, and due to Democratic incumbent Gary Peters’ impending retirement, this race is wide open on both sides. As we don’t yet know who the leading candidates for either party will be, my current classification of this race is based on a generic Democrat facing a generic Republican. Due to a national environment that should favor Democrats, that currently results in this race being categorized as leaning Democratic.

North Carolina

North Carolina is my lone tilt state in this edition, and I currently have it classified as tilt Democratic. Regardless of which direction this race ultimately goes, I expect it to be the closest of the cycle. North Carolina has been a highly confusing and competitive state for the past two decades: Republican in all but one presidential race throughout the 21st century, but reliably Democratic at the state level and a true bellwether at the Senate and House levels. This race is incredibly difficult to definitively predict, but I fundamentally believe that all external factors accounted for, if popular Democratic former governor Roy Cooper runs (as he has hinted he might), he will win, and if he does not, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis will win re-election. As I currently believe it is more likely than not that Cooper runs, I currently give the Democrats the ever so slight advantage in this race, providing them with their sole flip of the 2026 election cycle.