Donald Trump now has another challenger.
After initially forming an exploratory committee on April 12, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially announced his bid for the Republican nomination for president in 2024 today (May 22, 2023) with a brief 40-minute speech. He joins an already crowded field of candidates, including former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, talk show host Larry Elder, and former president Donald Trump.
With President Joe Biden’s approval ratings hovering in the low 40s, the 2024 general election represents a clear opportunity for the Republican party to take control of the presidency. But it won’t be easy: whoever wins the Republican nomination will have to overcome Democratic-friendly trends in Sunbelt (southern) swing states such as Georgia and Arizona while still performing well in rust belt (midwestern) states like Wisconsin. The Republicans will need to nominate a candidate who has strong appeal to both moderates and the Republican base. But is Tim Scott really that candidate?
Tim Scott's Case for the Presidency
Tim Scott, like many of his fellow non-Trump Republican candidates, represents a new beginning for the Republican party.
As a more moderate candidate on social issues, Scott has the ability to appeal to independent voters in the suburbs. He also has a unique level of appeal for a Republican to African-Americans, being one himself. He would likely do well in southern swing states, most notably Georgia and North Carolina, where he has regional appeal.
Scott has also shown his ability to convincingly win statewide elections. In his senate races in South Carolina, he has consistently outperformed other statewide and national candidates, including in 2016, when he outperformed Donald Trump - who won the general election - by nearly 10 points despite being on the same ballot. He also managed to win over 60 percent of the vote statewide, an impressive feat for a state the Republicans typically win by no more than 15 points. Whether he can replicate these performances on a national scale remains to be seen, but these factors bode well for Scott’s chances in the South Carolina state primary, a winner-take-all race that could give Scott some valuable momentum for the overall primaries.
What if Tim Scott Wins the Nomination?
Now, does Tim Scott’s entrance into the Republican primary make him one of the favorites for the nomination? As of now, no. Scott currently ranks fifth of six declared major candidates in estimated support, hovering around a lowly two percent of the Republican primary vote. The current favorites for the nomination - by a considerable margin - are former president Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (who has not yet officially entered the race but is expected to do so shortly). However, no candidate can be counted out in politics until the moment that they officially withdraw. For example, in 2008, Hillary Clinton came in as the heavy favorite for the Democratic nomination. However, that honor eventually ended up in the hands of Barack Obama, an initial underdog in the race, who went on to win the presidency. Scott already has the advantage of entering the race with a treasure trove of cash on hand ($22 million), allowing him to extensively promote his campaign in the coming months. So, let’s just say that Tim Scott manages to accrue the necessary endorsements and primary victories - and, of course, votes - to win the Republican nomination. How would he perform in the general election?
If Tim Scott were to match up against Joe Biden in 2024, he’d have a realistic pathway to the presidency. His (somewhat) establishment platform - which consists of minor tax cuts, some restrictions on immigration, and support for free trade - would be particularly appealing to suburban voters in the Sunbelt and could be enough to win back states such as Arizona and Georgia. Barring any major changes in the political landscape between now and 2024, an election scenario between Joe Biden and Tim Scott would look something like this:
By winning the toss-up states in this scenario, Scott would secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency. And there's every reason to believe he can do so.
Let’s start off with Georgia. Despite the Democratic-friendly trends in the state, Tim Scott’s regional appeal, being from neighboring South Carolina, would help him, particularly in the state’s rural counties. In addition, Scott would likely be able to make inroads in the Atlanta area, with both moderates in the suburbs and African-Americans in the city center. These factors, coupled with Joe Biden’s national unpopularity, would arguably make Tim Scott favored to win Georgia in a head-to-head matchup.
In Arizona, Scott’s suburban appeal would allow him to make inroads in Maricopa County (which contains Phoenix and its suburbs, and over 60% of the state’s population). With the Republican-friendly trends among Hispanics in the state’s southern counties, Scott winning back even a single percent of voters in Maricopa would likely be enough for him to win the state. Despite the Democratic-friendly trends in the Phoenix area, this goal is well within his reach.
Of the three tossup states, Wisconsin would likely be the most difficult for Scott to win. He would likely lose ground with both rural and working-class voters in the rust belt, as compared to former president Trump, Scott has less appeal to populist (anti-elitist) voters. However, with how competitive Wisconsin is on the national level, he still has a plausible pathway to victory. If Tim Scott can slightly reduce the Democratic margins in Milwaukee, Madison, and their suburbs, while maintaining decent voter turnout in the rural areas, he’d have a solid chance of winning the state.
However, that’s not to say Tim Scott would have an easy time winning the presidency. He would have to effectively balance far-right support with moderate-right and independent support. An establishment (moderate) platform that would help Scott in states like Arizona and Georgia would hurt him in states like Wisconsin, and vice versa. Even with President Biden’s lack of public approval, Scott would likely be the underdog against him.
How Tim Scott's Candidacy Affects the Republican Primaries
While Tim Scott is not the current favorite to win the Republican primary, his entrance into the race still affects who will likely win the nomination.
In the 2016 primaries, former president Donald Trump won the Republican nomination largely due to vote-splitting among many of his establishment opponents. We’re seeing a similar situation taking place ahead of the 2024 elections. Due to the winner-take-all primary system in many states, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the nomination only increase with every candidate that enters the race, and Tim Scott is no exception.
With Scott entering the race, the chances of a Republican successfully challenging Trump continue to decrease. In particular, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see a pathway to victory for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis - who is seen as Trump’s greatest competition for the Republican nomination. Ultimately, we seem to be heading towards a 2020 rematch in the general election: Trump vs Biden.
So, what does Tim Scott announcing his candidacy for president really mean?
Could he do well in a general election against Joe Biden? Probably.
Will he make it to the general election? Probably not.
In the end, Tim Scott may just be the next Ted Cruz or John Kasich: a Republican candidate who attempts to deny Donald Trump the presidential nomination but ultimately falls short.
Note: This article was originally published by me on Medium. To access this version of the article, click the link here.
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