The 2024 Republican primary just got a whole lot more interesting.
After months of speculation, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially announced his 2024 presidential campaign via a (faulty) 30-minute Twitter stream. He has long been considered the frontrunner to challenge former president Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. He has already obtained several notable endorsements, such as conservative media personality Ben Shapiro and Meghan McCain (the daughter of 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain). He has also managed to amass some substantial funds, raising $8.2 million in just his first 24 hours of candidacy. DeSantis’ campaign is taking shape as a beacon of hope for the Republican establishment (moderates). But is that really what he should want?
Well, here’s the simple answer: no. Ron DeSantis is currently viewed as a strong Republican candidate because he can appeal to both moderates and the Republican - and more specifically, Trump - base. By directly challenging Donald Trump in the 2024 primaries, DeSantis risks permanently losing the backing of diehard Trump supporters, who constitute a large share of Republican voters. And this isn’t just referring to 2024: Ron DeSantis running against Donald Trump will continue to affect him for the rest of his political career. By running against Trump, he is also opposing far-right Trumpism in the eyes of Trump supporters. Without the support of these far-right voters, DeSantis significantly weakens as a candidate, particularly when running against Trump-like opponents. And even if he manages to secure the Republican nomination in 2024, his ongoing feud with Trump will weaken his chances in the general election. Either way, DeSantis gets the short end of the stick.
What if DeSantis Wins the Nomination?
Now this outcome, while certainly possible, is unlikely. Donald Trump is currently leading Ron DeSantis by over 30 percent in the polls, and that lead has only been increasing. Fundamentally, with a primary system that includes multiple winner-take-all states, it’s difficult to see anyone beating the former president to the Republican nomination. However, if anyone is going to successfully challenge him, it’s Ron DeSantis. So, let’s just say that DeSantis manages to outperform expectations and win the Republican nomination. How would the general election play out?
If DeSantis were to win the nomination, he’d be doing so at Trump’s - and his supporter’s - expense. There would likely be a rift within the Republican party that would cost DeSantis support among the far-right, particularly in rust belt (midwestern) states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Without such a rift, DeSantis would arguably be favored to defeat President Biden in a head-to-head matchup. However, during the primaries, Trump will likely brand DeSantis a “traitor” against Republican values, which will alienate him from a large portion of the Republican base. Therefore, barring any major changes in the political landscape between now and 2024, an election scenario between Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis would look something like this:
Unless DeSantis can quickly secure the endorsement of Donald Trump - which is very unlikely to happen if DeSantis beats him to the nomination - his campaign will be all but doomed by internal conflict within the Republican party. Why? Well, we’ve seen what happens before when there is a rift within a political party.
In the 2016 Democratic primaries, former First Lady Hillary Clinton secured the presidential nomination after an extremely close race with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders took nearly a month to officially concede, which led to the Bernie or Bust movement. This movement, largely consisting of far-left progressive voters, greatly damaged Clinton’s campaign, which eventually narrowly lost the general election to Donald Trump. Out of resentment for his primary loss, 12 percent of Bernie Sanders's primary voters actually voted for Trump in the general election, in addition to many others who did not vote at all or voted third party. In such a competitive political world, these small groups of voters could easily be the difference between winning and losing the general election, just as they were in 2016.
If Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 nomination, he’ll likely experience a similar fate. A number of Trump’s primary voters would choose not to back him in the general election, greatly harming his campaign. Even with DeSantis’ ability to appeal to suburban voters, the loss of these far-right voters would likely be too much for him to overcome.
Fundamentally, due to the rift that DeSantis will inevitably create within the Republican party, he would not be favored to beat Joe Biden in the general election. And a general election loss on his record would not help DeSantis in future election cycles.
What if Donald Trump Wins the Nomination?
This outcome, which is definitely more likely than not, would leave Ron DeSantis in a bit of a predicament. Running against Donald Trump in the first place damages DeSantis’ image among a group of voters within the Republican party, and losing the primary to him will only reinforce the idea that Ron DeSantis (or as Trump calls him, Ron Desanctimonious) is incapable of winning elections. DeSantis will not only permanently lose support among the Trump base, but also the faith of the Republican establishment, which would affect his chances in future elections. In particular, a bid for the nomination in 2028 would lose much of its merit with a loss to Donald Trump in 2024.
If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination in 2024, it will only further solidify his position as the face of the Republican party. Similar to 2016, his loyal supporters will rise to influential positions within the party, while those who opposed him will be marginalized from it. As Trump’s main rival in the primaries, DeSantis will likely experience the worst effects of this, leaving him among the likes of Liz Cheney, whose political career was effectively ended due to her outspoken criticisms of Donald Trump. He will be cast out by the Republican party, leaving him with little opportunity to seriously challenge for the presidency again.
What Does This Mean for DeSantis' Political Career?
In the grand scheme of things, DeSantis' political career won’t be completely over. Within his home state of Florida, where he is extremely popular, he will still likely be able to run for public office, and may even eventually obtain a position in the Senate. Just like former primary opponents of Donald Trump, such as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, he will likely be able to maintain standing within the Republican party at the state level.
However, just like Senator Cruz, Ron DeSantis’ political image will be severely damaged at the national level. He will be branded as an enemy of Donald Trump and his ideals, which will permanently limit his appeal to far-right voters, particularly in the rust belt. And even with Ron DeSantis’ moderate and crossover appeal, these losses would likely be too difficult to overcome. And that’s if he can even win the nomination in the first place, which isn’t very likely without at least some far-right approval.
Overall, Ron DeSantis running for president in 2024 puts him in a lose-lose situation. If he wins the nomination, he very likely loses the general election. If he loses the nomination, he loses the faith of the Republican establishment. Either way, his political image will be tarnished, and his prospects of future electoral success will diminish. By announcing his campaign for president in 2024, Ron DeSantis has essentially doomed himself. Reviving his political career, at least at the federal level, will be a difficult task.
Note: This article was initially published by me on Medium. To access this version of the article, click the link here.
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