When Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election over Hillary Clinton, it sent shockwaves across the country. He was the underdog for the full duration of the race, and almost none of the major news networks had predicted him to win. However, it was not the first shock win Trump was able to pull off. He also - against all initial odds - won the Republican primary.
Heading into the 2016 Republican primaries, it was widely expected that the nominee would be a traditional conservative along the lines of previous nominees Mitt Romney (2012) and John McCain (2008). Names such as Chris Christie (Governor of New Jersey) and Jeb Bush (former Governor of Florida and younger brother of former President George W. Bush) were initially floated for the nomination, but it was ultimately Senator Ted Cruz of Texas who ended up being Trump’s most stiff competition.
Despite failing to win the nomination, Ted Cruz was able to win 11 states and around 25 percent of the primary vote. He ran well ahead of all other candidates aside from Trump, with no candidates apart from Cruz and Trump managing to win more than a single state. Cruz’s success can be partially attributed to endorsements from other anti-Trump candidates, including Jeb Bush and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham after they dropped out. Had these events occurred sooner, it’s not unreasonable to see Cruz having won the Republican nomination and faced Hillary Clinton in the general election. That begs the question: how would Ted Cruz do in the general election? But first, let’s analyze Ted Cruz as a candidate.
Ted Cruz's Strengths - And Weaknesses
To assess his strengths, let’s first take a look at his background. Ted Cruz is a Cuban-American second-generation immigrant who at the time of the 2016 primaries, was considered one of the more well-known voices of the Tea Party movement, which strongly opposed the leadership and policies of then-president Barack Obama. He had served as a senator since 2012, and prior to that was the Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to 2008. He campaigned as a Christian conservative, who supported big business, opposed government regulations, and was strongly against abortion.
So, with these things in mind, what are Cruz’s strengths? As a Latino himself, Cruz would do well with Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban voters, which would particularly help him in the swing state of Florida. Also, his political positions would strongly appeal to Evangelical Christians and conservatives in the suburbs, making him a strong candidate for states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and his home state of Texas.
Meanwhile, compared to Donald Trump, Cruz would be a weaker candidate for rural voters and the white working class. While Cruz, due to his highly conservative political stances, is actually a decent rural candidate, he would not get the same turnout from rural voters due to the relative redundancy of his campaign (sorry, establishment Republicans). Meanwhile, Cruz would perform poorly among working-class voters due to his lack of populist (anti-elitist) appeal. As more of a traditional Republican candidate, he would perform poorly in rust belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Now, with all that in mind, onto the map:
Where Cruz Outperforms Trump
Due to his political experience and (slightly) less outlandish stances than Donald Trump, Cruz would outperform him in sun belt (Southern) states, such as Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Virginia, and Texas. These states all have several things in common: they are growing fast, have large urban and suburban populations, and are rapidly trending Democratic. While Cruz would be unable to completely stop these trends, he would slow them, keeping the margin in Arizona above 5 percent (whereas Trump only won it by 3.5 points), and the margin in Texas above 10 percent (while Trump won it by 9 points). For this reason, Cruz would outperform Trump in traditionally Democratic states in the Northeast and on the West Coast, though he still wouldn’t come close to winning them. He would also win the state of Nevada (while Trump lost it by over 2 points), primarily due to his suburban appeal and his appeal to Latino voters, which would be his lone flip from the actual 2016 results.
Where Cruz Underperforms Trump
Due to his relative lack of rural and working-class appeal compared to Trump, Cruz would significantly underperform him in rust belt (midwestern) states. He would likely lose all of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (while Trump won all three), albeit by very narrow margins. He would also perform worse in states such as Iowa and Ohio (which Trump won by nearly 10 points), which have high working-class populations, although he would still win them. Due to the relative lack of rural turnout he would receive, Cruz would also do slightly worse in solidly Republican states such as West Virginia and Alabama, though he would still win them by considerable margins.
Overall, if Ted Cruz were the Republican nominee instead of Donald Trump in 2016, the election would have played out more similarly to its 2008 and 2012 counterparts. The Republicans would continue doing well in suburban areas, while the Democrats would continue their support among the white working class, despite opposite trends in both cases. Many long-term trends caused by the candidacy of Donald Trump would have been slowed, possibly by multiple decades, had he not won the nomination. Ultimately, however, Ted Cruz would lose the general election to Hillary Clinton while Donald Trump won. While he would have likely done better than Trump in the popular vote, due to a strong performance in his home state of Texas, he would end up just like his fellow traditional conservatives Mitt Romney and John McCain: Republicans who won their party’s nomination but ultimately experienced defeat.
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