We are now around a year from election day 2024, which means that the peak of election season is soon to begin. In light of this - and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s recent announcement that he will not seek re-election, essentially giving Republicans a guaranteed flip - I think it’s about that time to start releasing 2024 Senate and House predictions. So in wake of Senator Manchin’s announcement, let’s start with the Senate.
An Overview of the Race
Heading into the 2024 Senate elections, the Democratic Party has a narrow majority over the Republican Party of 51 seats to 49 seats. Assuming that the Democrats retain the presidency (check out this article of mine for further information on that race), they will need 50 seats to keep their majority. However, this cushion is countered by the fact that the 2024 map favors Republicans: Democrats (20) have more seats up for election than Republicans (11), and all but one of the seats I consider to be competitive are currently in Democratic hands. All in all, the 2024 Senate election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, but while the overall race will certainly go down to the wire, the outcome will ultimately depend on the results of a select few competitive races. Here’s a map of the races I currently believe could be instrumental to who controls the Senate following the 2024 elections:
Of the races currently classified as safe Democratic or Republican, there are two that I believe could enter competitive territory: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These two states, which are both competitive on the presidential level, currently have strong Democratic incumbents (Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania) and weak Republican challengers. If a strong Republican candidate emerges in either race, or if the national standing of the Democratic Party significantly deteriorates between now and election day 2024, these races could enter competitive territory, but as of now, I do not believe that the races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be decided by a margin of 5% or less.
Onto the competitive races, all but one seat (Texas) is currently held by a Democrat. And (not so) incidentally, with West Virginia practically a lost cause, Democrats will have to win all but one of these races to maintain control of the Senate. While they are certainly favored in the majority of these races at this point, I think that as of now, Democrats face an uphill battle in winning enough seats to retain their Senate majority.
With this in mind, here’s my prediction of how the competitive Senate races will go as of November 2023, along with an explanation of how I believe each race will turn out and why, in order of least to most competitive:
Texas
Let’s start with Texas, the only competitive seat in 2024 currently held by a Republican, and the race I think the Republican Party is most likely to win. Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz has had his fair share of controversies throughout his time in office, from his trip to Cancun during a series of major power outages in Texas to vaccine skepticism, and currently has a relatively low approval rating of 45%. He will also likely be going up against a pretty strong Democratic candidate in US Representative Colin Allred. Allred has shown political competency by winning competitive House races in the past, and holds relatively moderate political positions, making him a good fit for a state like Texas. However, due to the incumbency factor and a statewide Republican lean, Cruz has a clear advantage in this race, and I expect him to win by upwards of 4 percentage points. This race was close to being considered safe Republican, and should the nationwide approval of the Democratic Party continue to decrease as it has in the past few months, this race could lose its competitive status.
Nevada
I will be very surprised if Republicans lose in Texas, and the same is true for Democrats in Nevada. While the state is reasonably competitive on the presidential level, with only a slight Democratic lean, incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen is highly popular and is unlikely to face a particularly strong Republican opponent. I expect her to win re-election by 3 to 4 percentage points. Not much to say here, overall.
Michigan
Pretty similar to Nevada, Michigan is a competitive but Democratic-leaning state on the presidential level, with a very strong Democratic candidate and (at best) average candidates - with all due respect to James Craig, a former police chief being the frontrunner for a Senate nomination is not a prospect voters will find very exciting - on the other side of the aisle. The only major difference between the races in Michigan and Nevada is that the likely Democratic nominee, US Representative Elissa Slotkin, is not an incumbent. Despite this, her moderate voting records and political positions will strongly appeal to both working-class and independent voters, and I expect her to win this race by around 3 percentage points.
Arizona
Despite not quite being the most competitive race in 2024, Arizona will arguably be the most interesting to watch. Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 but switched her party label to independent in 2022 (although she still caucuses with the Democratic Party). Her approval ratings are extremely low among Democrats, but higher with independent voters and Republicans. Currently, candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties have declared for this race, namely US Representative Ruben Gallego (Democrat) and 2022 governor nominee Kari Lake (Republican), while Sinema is yet to officially declare her candidacy. As of now, I don’t expect Sinema to run for re-election, in which case I’d expect Gallego to win this race by around 3 percentage points, primarily due to Lake’s lack of popularity in the state of Arizona as a 2020 election denier. However, even if Sinema does run, Gallego would still be favored in this race due to Sinema’s lack of support from Democratic voters, and I’d see him winning by around 1 to 2 percentage points.
Ohio
Now we're really getting into tossup territory. Ohio, like Nevada, has a Democratic incumbent with a very high approval rating in Sherrod Brown. However, unlike Jacky Rosen, Brown is running for re-election in a state that voted for Donald Trump by 8% in 2020. Brown’s popularity is counteracted by a reasonably strong Republican lean statewide, so this race will be tight no matter what. Fundamentally, the outcome of this race leans upon who is selected as the Republican nominee. If the nominee is Bernie Moreno, a far-right Trumpist lacking in name recognition, then I’d expect Brown to win re-election by upwards of 2 percentage points. If the nominee is state senator Matt Dolan, a relatively strong but somewhat unknown candidate, I’d expect Brown to win by around 0.5 to 1 percent. And if the nominee is Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who has a populist record, perfect for a state like Ohio, and has won statewide races by convincing margins, expect this race to enter pure tossup status, or potentially even the Republican column. At this point, I’d guess that Moreno ends up being the nominee, but as that is pure speculation, I settled on classifying the Ohio race as tilt Democratic.
Montana
Montana’s senate race is essentially a reflection of Ohio’s but with each factor magnified. Instead of an 8% Trump state, popular Democratic incumbent Jon Tester has to win re-election in a state that voted Republican by a margin of 16% in 2020. Just like in Ohio, the outcome of this race will ultimately be determined by who the Republican nominee is. If the nominee is businessman and political outsider Tim Sheehy, who currently has the endorsement of Montana Governor Greg Gianforte, I’d expect Tester to lose by 1 to 2 percentage points. However, if the nominee is US Representative Matt Rosendale, a Republican hard-liner who previously lost to Tester in 2018, I’d give Tester a slight edge of under half a percentage point. Since Rosendale has yet to announce his candidacy - and it’s unclear if he ever will - I’m assuming the nominee is Sheehy in this prediction, which is why I gave the Republicans an edge. Things could change if Rosendale enters the race, but as of now, I don’t see a clear pathway to victory for Jon Tester in Montana, particularly during a presidential election year. Ultimately, as of November 2023, I expect Republicans to gain control of the senate in 2024 through flips in Montana and West Virginia.
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