The matchup we’ve already seen, yet the one we’re all expecting.
Donald Trump is the heavy favorite to once again win the Republican nomination, currently polling at over 50 percent of the vote, while his - current - strongest challenger Ron DeSantis languishes at barely over 20 percent. At this point, it’s tough to see Trump losing the nomination, especially with several Republican primary races being winner-take-all.
Meanwhile - with all due respect to Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - it does not appear that incumbent president Joe Biden will be facing a significant primary challenge, presumptively leaving him with the Democratic nomination.
That leaves us in the same place we were in 2020: Trump vs Biden. Given that the matchup is the same as the 2020 election, it’s unlikely that we would see significant changes in the results. However, to assess the changes that could happen, let’s look at what has changed since 2020.
What Has Changed Since 2020?
The simple answer to this question is quite a lot. However, most of the changes that have occurred since the 2020 election don’t substantially affect either Biden or Trump in terms of electoral strength. The political landscape between Trump and Biden has not changed drastically: Trump is still viewed as the more outlandish yet charismatic candidate, while Biden is viewed as the more down-to-earth, experienced candidate.
But a few things have changed that could impact the 2024 election. Firstly, Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped significantly, currently sitting at just 41 percent, which is considerably lower than it was in 2020 (although still currently higher than Trump’s favorability rating, which sits at 40 percent). On the other hand, Trump has only further narrowed his range of appeal, due to his claims of election fraud after losing the 2020 election and the January 6, 2021 Capitol Insurrection. He has also been indicted by the Justice Department of New York and is currently facing 37 criminal charges. It’s unclear quite how these proceedings will affect his campaign, but they figure to increase the enthusiasm of both his supporters and opposition.
However, in the grand scheme of things, the scopes of appeal that Biden and Trump offer have not changed much since 2020: Trump is still a very strong working-class candidate who will no doubt get high voter turnout from rural areas, while Biden remains a strong candidate for suburbs and metropolitan areas.
With these changes in mind, let’s check out the map:
What Changes in a Rematch Between Trump and Biden?
While the map may not look exactly the same, it is merely a byproduct of the same trends that led to the 2020 results. Trump’s working-class and rural appeal leads to him doing well in rust belt (midwestern) states, while Biden’s suburban appeal results in stronger performances across the sun belt (Southern United States). Trump would flip Wisconsin (which he lost by 0.6% in 2020), and get the margin in Pennsylvania under 1% (while he lost it by 1.2% in 2020), due to the Republican-friendly trends in those states. Meanwhile, Biden would improve in Sunbelt (southern) states like Georgia, Arizona, and Texas, which all have large urban and suburban populations. He would improve his margins in Arizona and Georgia (which he won by less than a percentage point in 2020) while reducing the margin in Texas to under 5 points. North Carolina would also narrow to under a percentage point (while Trump won it by 1.3% in 2020), and would probably be this election’s closest state.
Now, there’s still plenty of time for things to change. We could see a recession between now and the election, which would doubtless push his already low approval ratings even lower. We could also see Trump’s charges preventing him from running for office, or causing him to lose the Republican nomination - though the latter is highly unlikely. However, assuming no major changes, Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch, in a very similar fashion to how he did in 2020.
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