top of page
sohansahay200

2024 Election Prediction: Joe Biden vs Mike Pence


Donald Trump officially unveils Mike Pence as his Vice Presidential pick on July 15, 2016.

Although his former Vice President, Mike Pence is now running against Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. After breaking from the Trump base following the January 6, 2021 capitol insurrection, in which Pence refused to delay the certification of the 2020 election results, Pence has become one of Trump’s harshest critics, anchoring his campaign on the “traditional conservative” argument that past mainstream Republicans such as Mitt Romney and John McCain relied upon. While those grounds have worked well for Republicans in the past, Pence’s campaign is not doing very well in the early stages.


Despite having plenty of name recognition - as the former second-ranking government official of the United States - Pence is currently polling at just around 6 percent support, well behind Trump, who sits at 53 percent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, currently at 20 percent. The fundraising numbers don’t look great for Pence either: he raised under $1.2 million in the second quarter of 2023, which ranks eighth of 11 Republican major candidates, and currently fails to clear the donor threshold to qualify for the Republican primary debates. However, due to his name recognition, Pence is still polling above all his competitors except DeSantis and Trump, so - though a long shot - it’s not impossible to see him winning the nomination. So, let’s say he does. How would Mike Pence perform in a general election against Joe Biden? Well, let’s first analyze Pence as a candidate.


Mike Pence's Strengths - And Weaknesses

Despite being a former ally of Donald Trump, Mike Pence is - and always has been - a very different candidate to him. As Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017 prior to being Vice President, he brings long-standing political experience, in contrast to the political outsider image adopted by Trump. He is also more moderate on social issues than Trump, such as immigration and racial equality. Pence champions himself as a representation of Ronald Reagan-esque conservatism. Due to these positions, Pence would do well with Evangelical Christians and moderate voters in the suburbs, traditionally strong areas of support for Republican candidates.


However, due to his actions at the January 6th Capitol insurrection, in which he refused to echo Donald Trump’s claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election, Pence would be a weak candidate for the Trump base. He permanently turned off a number of diehard Trump supporters by certifying the 2020 election results, and they will be ill-inclined to vote for him if he wins the nomination. He would get significantly lower voter turnout in rural areas than Trump, and would also perform much worse with the white working class, which would disadvantage him in rust belt (midwestern) swing states.


With these factors in mind, here’s what a hypothetical election between Joe Biden and Mike Pence in 2024 would look like:


Margins: Safe Democratic/Republican (Over 10%), Likely Democratic/Republican (5-10%), Lean Democratic/Republican (1-5%), Tilt Democratic/Republican (Under 1%). Made using the YAPms mapping tool.

Where Pence Does Well

Due to his appeal to moderates and traditional conservatives, Pence would do well in Sunbelt (Southern) states, such as Georgia, Arizona, and Texas, all of which have high urban and suburban populations. He would be able to slow the Democratic-friendly trends in many of these states, managing to prevent further leftward shifts in Georgia (although he would still narrowly lose the state) and Texas, while narrowly flipping back Arizona - which Trump lost in 2020 by 0.3%. He would also do better in Northeastern states such as New Hampshire - whose voters are notorious for being fiscally conservative and socially moderate - due to his appeal to moderate voters, though it would not be enough for him to win the state.


Where Pence Does Poorly

As with most other Republicans that perform well in Sunbelt states, Mike Pence would perform poorly in the rust belt swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, due to his particular lack of appeal to the Trump base, Pence would perform even worse than other traditional Republicans. The lack of rural and working-class support he would receive would be enough for him to lose Michigan by over 5 points (while Trump lost it by 2.8%) and Wisconsin by well over a point (while Trump lost it by 0.63%). He would also lose ground in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio (though he would still likely win the latter two by over 5%). Though most of these states are Republican-trending, Pence would still perform worse in them than Trump did in 2020.


Overall, Pence is one of the weaker candidates currently seeking the 2024 Republican nomination. While he would undoubtedly do better than both Trump and Ron DeSantis - and most other major candidates - in the suburbs, there is little else his campaign has to offer. As a candidate, he is comparable to previous Republican nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain, and would likely experience the same result as them in a general election: defeat.

123 views0 comments

Related Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page