It has been over six months since I last made a prediction on this matchup, despite the fact that Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump have been comfortably leading their respective primary races for the best part of a year. Since my previous prediction, a number of key things about the American political landscape have changed: the Israel-Palestine saga has entered another stage of conflict, giving Americans a new foreign policy issue to consider, Biden’s favorability ratings have tanked, and in wake of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, Trump’s grip on the Republican Party, which previously appeared shaky, is now absolute. So, with that all being said, let’s take a look at what has changed, and also what has stayed the same, in a matchup between the candidates we now know for certain will be the major party nominees for the general election.
What Has Changed?
While scarce little about the candidates themselves has changed in the past six months, momentum certainly has. While Trump’s favorability was at one of its lowest ever points in July of 2023, it has since improved significantly to just a 9 point net unfavorability (which despite what it may seem, is actually quite good for a high-profile American politician. On the contrary, Biden’s approval rating, which six months ago, was sitting in the low to mid 40s, has tanked, currently sitting at just 38%. Currently, in wake of convincing victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, Trump is surging, while Biden is stagnating. While I do expect this trend to eventually revert (particularly if the economy continues to improve) as Trump’s legal cases and inflammatory comments begin to take the national stage, Trump winning the presidency in 2024, which seemed highly unlikely six months ago, is now firmly within the realm of possibility.
The increased competitiveness of this race is reflected on the map, in which the critical swing states of Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, have all moved down to “Tilt Democratic” status, with projected victory margins of under 1%, largely due to projected decreases in far-left turnout. In particular, I would consider Georgia to be closest to “pure tossup” status, with Biden only having the slightest of advantages at the current moment.
Also contrary to six months ago, Trump currently leads Biden in nationwide general election polls by a healthy 4% margin, indicating that the former president, in addition to having momentum on his side, may already have the upper hand. However, I dispute how valid these polls will be come election day, which leads us into our next section.
What Has Stayed the Same?
While Trump may have momentum on his side, a number of things less exciting for his campaign remain unchanged. Firstly, Biden is still the incumbent, and incumbents traditionally overperform polls in re-election years. We’ve this phenomenon both prior to and during the Trump era: on election day in 2012, Mitt Romney polled at 1% ahead of former President Barack Obama nationally, before going on to lose the popular vote by 4%, and in 2020, Trump, as the incumbent, was down a colossal 10% against Biden on election day, but only ended up losing nationally by 4.5%. Though Biden may currently be lagging behind Trump in the polls, it’s highly likely that he will outperform them come election day, which is one of the main reasons I still have him winning the electoral college in 2024.
The other reason why I still have Biden ahead is another thing that has not changed: Trump’s temperament. Despite losing the 2020 election primarily due to his brash personality, Trump has persisted in projecting himself to independent voters as the less electable candidate. For example, in his recent New Hampshire victory speech, Trump continued to echo false claims of election fraud in the 2020 election, even after inciting an insurrection at the United States capitol over the matter, and personally attacked the state’s highly popular governor, Chris Sununu, for campaigning against him. Fundamentally, I believe these dictator-like actions that have already pushed so many moderate conservatives out of the Republican Party will crater Trump’s numbers among independent voters to the point where he’d fall just short in states like Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Trump still has time to change his image before the general, but based on his current actions, coupled with the 91 criminal charges he is currently facing, indicate the chances of him actually doing so are low. As such, I still believe that Trump will lose to Biden in 2024 for the same reasons he did in 2020: his inability to court independent voters, and his unwillingness to adapt to the benefit of those in the political center.
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