While every state matters in elections, the overall outcome is typically dependent on a subset of swing states, which often change. In 1996, less than three decades ago, Kentucky (a state Donald Trump won by 26% in 2020) was the most competitive state in the nation. Meanwhile, the most competitive state in 2020, Georgia, went to George Bush by 16.6% in 2004, just 16 years earlier. As trends will continue to change, they will continue to define elections, in 2024, 2028, and beyond.
Based on the current trends, and given a stable political environment with candidates of equal strength from both the Democratic and Republican parties, here’s my generic 2028 election prediction:
What Changes From 2020 to 2028?
In general, this map does not look very different from the 2020 election results. It is still a highly competitive map centered on swing states in both the rust belt (Midwest) and Sunbelt (South), such as Texas, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. It is also the product of the same political trends that dominated the 2020 election cycle: Democratic shifts in traditionally Republican states in the South with large suburban populations, and Republican shifts in traditionally Democratic states in the Midwest with large working-class populations. However, there are some noteworthy changes that could greatly impact elections for decades to come.
Firstly, Texas - one of the nation’s most populous and fastest-growing states - will be one of the most competitive states by 2028. The 40 electoral votes that Texas carries, which will likely only grow in number in the future, will be critical to elections throughout the 2030s. While I would still give the Republican a slight advantage in Texas for 2028, I expect Texas to flip blue in the 2030s, due to Democratic shifts in its cities and suburbs.
On the contrary, the rust belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which all carry their fair share of electoral votes, will become increasingly competitive in the opposite direction. I expect Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to flip Republican by 2028, with Michigan soon to follow in the early 2030s. Due to their high working-class populations, which are trending Republican, I expect the Republicans to do steadily better in these states.
However, Democrats should largely be able to make up for these losses with gains in Sunbelt swing states such as Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, which I expect to flip blue for the first time since 2008 in 2028. By 2028, Georgia and Arizona will be far less competitive than they were in 2020, with eight further years of Democratic trends in the Atlanta and Phoenix metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, similar trends will take place in states such as Kansas and Alaska, although they will still be reasonably Republican states in 2028 and are unlikely to flip blue until the 2030s.
Overall, assuming no major changes in trends between now and 2028, the electoral map will remain highly competitive, but due to different swing states than those of decades prior, just as it always has. With respect to 2028, however, given candidates of similar strength from both the Democratic and Republican sides, I would still slightly favor the Democrats based on current trends, regardless of whether President Biden wins or loses re-election in 2024.
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