Electoral votes win elections, and every decade, the electoral map changes. States that are losing population lose electoral votes, while those gaining population gain electoral votes. These changes can be highly consequential to the outcome of elections, particularly with the regional state trends that currently dominate this era (the Sunbelt is trending Democratic, while the rust belt is trending Republican). Assuming the current population trends stay the same, here’s my estimate on which states will gain and lose electoral votes.
Interestingly, the states losing electoral votes are clustered in the rust belt (except for California), while the states gaining electoral votes are concentrated in the Sunbelt (again, except California). The states losing electoral votes are almost uniformly trending Republican, while the states gaining electoral votes are largely trending Democratic. Assuming that current trends persist throughout the 2020s, here’s my generic 2032 election prediction:
Compared to the 2020 map, the South looks a lot bluer, while the Midwest looks a lot redder, just as how the South gains more electoral votes, while the Midwest has fewer. There is a clear association here: people from cities in the rust belt are moving to the Sunbelt in droves, making states such as Texas rapidly more Democratic while states like Pennsylvania (which is losing people) become more Republican. Here’s a quick overview of every state that is gaining or losing electoral votes, and why.
Texas
Let’s start with Texas, the fastest-growing state in the country by population from 2021 to 2022. Texas is home to the major cities of Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, all of which are growing at tremendous rates, therefore shifting the state more heavily Democratic. Smaller cities such as Lubbock, Amarillo, El Paso, and Corpus Christi are also growing, furthering the state’s leftward trends. Due to this steep growth, I expect Texas to gain 2 electoral votes in the 2030s, just as it did in the 2020s. It’s also likely that Texas will flip blue in either 2032 or 2036.
New York
Contrary to Texas, we have New York, the fastest-shrinking state in the country. New York was the nation’s most populous state until 1964 but now languishes in fourth, behind California, Texas, and Florida. There is a pretty simple explanation for why: New York City, the largest city in the United States, which makes up 43% of the state’s population, is losing people fast. While some areas in the upstate (such as the state capital, Albany) are actually growing, their growth is nowhere near enough the counteract the losses of the city. Therefore, I expect New York to lose 2 electoral votes in the 2030s, just as it did in the 2000s and 2010s.
Florida
A political anomaly, Florida is the nation’s second-fastest-growing state in terms of population but is trending Republican. In 2020, despite performing significantly worse in the national popular vote, Donald Trump actually improved his margin in Florida, winning it by 3.4%. While this can be largely attributed to Trump’s strong nationwide performance with Hispanic voters (who make up a large portion of South Florida’s electorate), it was still a shocking result. Though Florida will likely continue trending Republican throughout the 2020s, I still expect it to gain an electoral vote in the 2030s, just as it did this decade.
Illinois
Similar to New York, Illinois is a state centered around a city that is losing people very quickly. In Illinois’ case, metropolitan Chicago, which makes up over half the state’s population, has lost nearly 300,000 people in the last 5 years. While some areas in the downstate are growing, their growth is overpowered by Chicago’s losses, which leaves Illinois losing people and slowly but steadily trending Republican. While Illinois will likely lose an electoral vote in the 2030s and is losing people fast, the sheer dominance of Chicago over the state should keep it blue for the foreseeable future.
Arizona
Like New York and Illinois, Arizona’s population is largely concentrated in a single city. However, unlike New York and Illinois, Arizona is growing because of it. Phoenix, which represents a colossal 67% of the state’s population, is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States. These trends have led Arizona to trend heavily Democratic in recent decades, with Joe Biden flipping it in 2020 for the first time since 1996. Although Arizona did not gain an electoral vote in the 2020s, it will likely do so in the 2030s, just as it did in the 2010s.
California
Bordering Arizona is the only Sunbelt state to be losing an electoral vote: California. California is somewhat of an anomaly, as unlike other states losing population, it has not been doing so for multiple decades. As recently as the 2010s, California was gaining electoral votes due to increased population. However, due to the high housing costs in major Californian cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco, people are beginning to emigrate from California as quickly as they had immigrated. Therefore, I expect California to lose an electoral vote in the 2030s.
Georgia
Similar to Arizona, Georgia is growing - and trending Democratic - fast due to the dominance of a single city. The Atlanta metropolitan area, which makes up 57% of the state’s population, is one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States. Within Georgia, however, smaller cities such as Savannah, Augusta, and Columbus, which are also growing and trending more and more Democratic, also have a level of influence. Due to these trends, Georgia has trended heavily Democratic since the mid-2000s, with Joe Biden becoming the first Democrat since 1992 to win it in 2020. As the state continues to grow (enough to gain an electoral vote in the 2030s), these trends will likely continue.
Michigan
Michigan is headlined by the city of Detroit, the fastest-shrinking major city in the United States. However, though the state is losing population fast due to Detroit’s population decline, it is unlikely to trend Republican as much as other rust belt states. Michigan will likely remain a swing state for decades to come, due to the counter-trends to Detroit’s population decrease in the Detroit suburbs and smaller cities such as Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids, which are largely growing. Though I expect Michigan to continue losing electoral votes and be a Republican-leaning state throughout the 2030s and 2040s, I wouldn’t be surprised if it begins to trend in the opposite direction in the mid-21st century, leaving it a perpetual swing state.
North Carolina
North Carolina is the third fastest-growing state in the country in terms of population. Similar to Texas, the state is home to several rapidly-growing major cities, including Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem as well as some smaller cities that are also growing - such as Asheville and Wilmington. The growth of these cities has led North Carolina to become a more Democratic state in recent years, with Joe Biden narrowly losing it in 2020. Due to its population growth, the state will likely flip in 2028 and gain an electoral vote in the 2030s.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is headlined by two metropolitan areas: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Both are losing population, albeit at slower rates than cities such as New York City and Chicago. However, in Pennsylvania, the rural and working-class counties are also largely losing people, leading to a population decline across the entire state. As such, Pennsylvania has been trending Republican since 2008, and will likely continue to do so in future decades. I expect Pennsylvania to lose an electoral vote in the 2030s, just as it did in the 2010s and 2020s.
Colorado
Contrary to many of the other Sunbelt states growing in population, Colorado is already a reliably Democratic state and has been for over a decade. In 2020, Joe Biden won it by a safe margin of 13.5%, the best Democratic performance in the state since 1964. However, due to the continued growth of the Denver metropolitan area, as well as leftward trends in smaller cities such as Colorado Springs, Colorado will only continue to get bluer. It will also likely gain an electoral vote in the 2030s, just as it did in the 2020s.
Ohio
Similar to Colorado, Ohio, despite following a certain trend, is no longer a competitive state. However, in Ohio’s case, the trend is in the opposite direction: unlike the other rust belt states losing population, Ohio is already a reliably Republican state. Donald Trump won it by 8 points in both 2020 and 2016. As people continue leaving Ohio’s major cities of Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, the state will only become more Republican and will continue losing electoral votes.
Utah
Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country, yet it is one of the fastest-growing and most heavily Democratic-trending. From 2020 to 2021, it was the second-fastest-growing state in terms of percentage growth. Most of the growth occurred in Salt Lake City, Utah’s largest city, and of of the fastest-growing cities in the United States. The city, which was Republican-leaning as recently as 2012, has trended massively Democratic in recent years, as has the state as a whole. Though Utah will still be a solidly Republican state in the 2030s, it will become steadily more competitive, and will likely gain an electoral vote in the coming decade.
New Jersey
New Jersey, which has a large portion of its population concentrated in the suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City, is experiencing the effects of population decrease in both areas. The populations of large cities in the state such as Newark and Jersey City are rapidly decreasing, which is leading the state to trend more Republican. Though New Jersey will still be a reliably Democratic state in the 2030s, it will likely flip sometime in the mid-21st century. Due to its decrease in population, it will likely lose an electoral vote in the 2030s, just as it did in the 2000s and 2010s.
Overall, the 2030s will likely see a continuation of the trends we are seeing both demographically and politically in the United States. States in the Sunbelt, which are currently more Republican yet trending Democratic, are gaining electoral votes. Meanwhile, states in the rust belt, which are currently more Democratic yet trending Republican, are losing electoral votes. In the short term, these trends help Republicans. However, in the long term, especially once Texas flips blue, Democrats will benefit from these population shifts. Just as electoral votes win elections, so do trends. And based on the current population trends, the future of American elections lies in the Sunbelt.
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