A Check In On The State of Global Politics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with troops ahead of the three-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

While disagreement is etched in the very essence of politics, it would be next to impossible to find anyone who does not believe that the past few months have been highly influential on the state of global politics. The second presidential administration of Donald Trump, which officially took power in January of 2025 after a resounding victory in the 2024 election, has made a number of unprecedented decisions that have altered the very nature of global relations in its first few months in power, from leaving the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time to attempting to strike down birthright citizenship. The Trump administration’s newly formed influence over the state of global affairs has sent shockwaves around the world, affecting alliances, global perspectives, and arguably most importantly, ongoing conflicts. It’s been a very long time since I’ve taken a look at international politics (in the time since, we’ve seen a complete election cycle come and go and a new presidential administration take shape within the United States, and within our own staff, two of our editors have made the transition to university), so let’s take a look at some of the most important developments in international politics, how the Trump administration has impacted them, and what they mean for the future of the world.

The Russia-Ukraine War

There is perhaps no development more potentially consequential for international precedent than the Russia-Ukraine War, which has played a central role in global politics since its eruption in 2022, upending decades of historical precedent concerning war. While the outcome of the conflict will no doubt reshape the state of global relations, the war itself serves as a break of international precedents that had largely lasted since the conclusion of the World War era in 1945. Throughout the Cold War era that followed, norms of territorial integrity, or respect for the territorial claims of other countries, became common expectation amongst global nations. Territorial warfare, or war waged by one country on another with the primary intention of seizing territory from them, had essentially become a thing of the past. Therefore, on February 24th of 2022, when the Russian army directly invaded Ukraine with the intention of absorbing much of its territory, it sent shockwaves throughout the world. As such, in response to Russia’s invasion, a coalition of nations, primarily those part of NATO, formed to aid Ukraine through military support and various economic sanctions.

Due to the immense foreign aid that Ukraine received along with various sanctions that were imposed on Russia, the swift victory Russia expected ended up evolving into a years-long conflict that forced Russia to lessen its ultimate goals for the war. While Russia advanced initially into Ukraine, steamrolling through its initial defenses, the aid Ukraine was receiving eventually balanced the scales, and Russia was stalled in Eastern Ukraine. This stalemate, which has lasted for nearly three years now with little change in territorial control (at the time of writing, Russia has control over roughly 1200 square kilometers of land in Eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine controls a small amount of territory in Russia’s Kursk region), led to peace talks between the two sides that repeatedly derailed, until recently. With the help of newly elected American president Donald Trump, Russia and Ukraine agreed to an initial ceasefire last month with an agreement to halt violence in the Black Sea following a few weeks later. While this agreement signaled a genuine intent on both sides to end the conflict, it was ultimately short-lived, with Russia recently launching an attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and continuing to advance in other parts of Ukraine’s territory.

While the war has been a pendulum of violence throughout the past few years, and despite a ramping up of tensions in recent weeks, Donald Trump is clearly intent on ending this war during his running presidential term, and given this fact, my indication is that this war will reach an ultimate conclusion sooner rather than later. When it does, it will clarify the extent to which global precedents for war have shifted, affecting other potential conflicts from China and Taiwan to the United States and Western Europe.

Tariff Wars

I mentioned a potential conflict between the United States and Western Europe at the end of the previous section, and that may seem surprising to my readers who know that both have been strong allies for nearly a century. However, a conflict between these military allies may be festering on the economic level given some of the recent actions of the Trump administration. Trump has long been threatening tariffs, or taxes imposed on the import of goods from a foreign country with the intent of protecting domestic producers, on American adversaries such as China, but more recently, he has threatened the same impositions on European Union (EU) countries, long considered allies of the United States, if a new trade deal between the US and EU is not soon agreed. Europe has persisted in its conviction to retaliate against any Trump tariffs with appropriate force, and has already previously done so when it passed over 20 billion EUR (euros) of tariffs on the United States in response to its own first wave of tariffs (though both series of imposed tariffs were later retracted). It’s fair to assume that this economic exchange will not be the last of Trump’s presidential term, and the next time such an exchange occurs, other international forces could be pulled into these economic conflicts.

Recently, China, arguably the largest economic and political rival of the United States on the global stage, has been sending out invitations to European countries to form a united opposition to American tariffs, in an effort to expand its growing Belt and Road Initiative. The Belt and Road, which seeks to expand China’s economic influence globally, often at the expense of the United States, has the potential to change the fundamental balance of global relations, with China inserting itself into discussions of being a world superpower, a title that the United States has solely held since the fall of the Soviet Union over three decades ago. The initiative, which seeks to connect the Chinese sphere of influence through both land and maritime trade routes, has recently extended into Europe, with countries previously loyal to the United States being driven away from it by the introduction of American tariffs under the Trump administration. However powerful the United States may be individually (it is, by all means, the most powerful country in the world both militarily and economically), its position in the global balance of power is being threatened, largely by its own design. These developments are certainly worth keeping track of, as if the Trump administration pushes traditional American allies too far (which to me, has a high probability of occurring), it risks losing them for good, perhaps even to China. This would leave the United States isolated on the global stage, drastically altering the balance of power and potentially ushering in an entirely new phase of international politics.

Generally, the future of the world, at least in the short term, seems to be dependent on the actions of the Trump administration in its pivotal second term. Beyond tariff wars and actual conflicts, Trump’s actions will have significant effects on global precedents for issues such as immigration, borders and boundaries, and diplomatic ties between nations. Trump is certainly a controversial figure, but none can deny his influence on the political landscape of both the United States and the world as a whole. For better or worse, the remaining years of his second presidential term will be hectic.